Swaying PEK in the Wind of Global Power Competition
While each actor strives to become the dominant force in the Near/Middle East and the Eurasian/Caucasus regions, the natural-environmental realities of global and regional power competition set clear boundaries on their subjective actions. All these actors are caught in fascinating swings between “existential threats” and “rational regional ambitions.”
Let’s take a closer look at Putin’s latest sway: His political approach toward Ukraine has shifted from the “Celebration of Annexation” to “Silent Backlash,” with around 100,000 casualties in the occupied Ukrainian territories. (Military-Political)
Erdogan’s overly elastic sway: His political stance has transformed from “Morsianic Islamism” to “Sisianic Pharaohism” due to economic desperation. (Political-Ideological)
Khamenei’s tragicomic sway has also evolved: from “Religious Smiles” to the “Abolition of the Morality Police,” amid a prolonged period of unrest. (Political-Ideological)
In addition to military, political, and ideological losses, all of them will continue to suffer economic losses, more or less, with no doubt. MAZ Foresight predicted these results (sways and transformations) in the 2021 report and elaborated on them throughout 2022.
2023 holds no surprises. PEK will continue to lose across all military, economic, political, and ideological domains. MAZ Foresights predict that each actor will lose in their specific way—whether in military and economic terms, political and economic terms, or in different combinations (e.g., more economic, less military, etc.). The 2023 MAZ Foresights will provide further clarity on these functions.
My criticism of the global agenda in power competitions: Daily, weekly, or monthly reports and foresight analyses can be valuable but are often plagued with vulnerabilities that result in inaccurate conclusions and drifting predictions. However, the quality and consistency of MAZ Foresights have reached a global level and have undeniably proven successful. Furthermore, MAZ’s keen analysis has minimized the analytical and interpretive drift that often affects international analysts.
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı
MAZ Foresights – Trial Release
December 8, 2022 – Istanbul