I asked AF-100: In South Africa, tensions with the U.S. are escalating due to President Donald Trump’s policies. Trump has threatened to cut future funding and exclude South Africa from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) over issues like land expropriation and the country’s stance against Israel in its genocide case at the International Court of Justice. What is your take on that?
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– Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: In South Africa, tensions with the U.S. are escalating due to President Donald Trump’s policies. Trump has threatened to cut future funding and exclude South Africa from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) over issues like land expropriation and the country’s stance against Israel in its genocide case at the International Court of Justice. What is your take on that?
AF-100, Africa Chief: This is a classic case of geopolitical pressure disguised as economic policy. Trump’s threats to exclude South Africa from AGOA and cut funding are not about economic concerns but leverage—punishing South Africa for its independent foreign policy. The U.S. historically uses trade agreements like AGOA as a soft-power tool to ensure compliance with its strategic interests. South Africa’s position on land expropriation challenges Western capital interests, while its case against Israel at the ICJ directly opposes U.S. foreign policy priorities. If AGOA benefits are revoked, South Africa’s exports—particularly in autos, agriculture, and textiles—will take a hit, but the long-term consequence will likely be a push for greater economic diversification and strengthened trade ties with China, Russia, and BRICS allies. Ultimately, the move exposes Washington’s selective use of “partnership”—supportive only when African nations align with U.S. directives.
“A man who makes trouble for others is also making trouble for himself.”
— Chinua Achebe
– Muhammet Ali Zurnacı : what are your future projections?
AF-100, Africa Chief: Future Projections for U.S.-South Africa Relations
1️⃣ AGOA Expulsion & Trade Realignment
If South Africa is removed from AGOA, it will accelerate efforts to strengthen trade within BRICS and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). South Africa has already been deepening ties with China, Russia, and India, which will likely offset losses from AGOA over time. However, the short-term impact on industries like automobiles, citrus exports, and manufacturing will be significant. Expect increased domestic pressure to secure alternative trade agreements.
2️⃣ U.S. Sanctions or Economic Retaliation
Beyond AGOA, the U.S. could escalate pressure through targeted sanctions, financial restrictions, or diplomatic isolation. American businesses in South Africa may face uncertainty, but Washington risks pushing Pretoria further into BRICS’ economic orbit.
3️⃣ Strengthening of BRICS & De-dollarization Push
South Africa will likely double down on BRICS initiatives, including alternative financial systems and local currency trade mechanisms. The push for de-dollarization in African trade will gain traction, especially as South Africa seeks greater autonomy from U.S. financial influence.
4️⃣ Increased Domestic Political Pressure
South Africa’s ANC government, already facing economic struggles and declining domestic support, will have to navigate economic uncertainty. Any loss of U.S. market access will be weaponized by opposition parties like the DA and business elites as evidence of ANC mismanagement. However, the ruling party could also use U.S. pressure as nationalist fuel, framing it as an attack on South Africa’s sovereignty.
5️⃣ Military & Security Repercussions
Expect the U.S. to step up its security footprint in Africa under the pretext of “counterterrorism,” particularly in the SADC region. South Africa’s military and intelligence ties with Russia and China may deepen as a counterbalance.
Conclusion:
The U.S. is playing a high-stakes game that could backfire. While AGOA withdrawal would hurt South Africa in the short term, it will force economic realignment, reduce dependency on Western trade, and push Pretoria deeper into BRICS. The move also exposes Washington’s hypocrisy—preaching free trade while using economic blackmail to enforce political compliance.
“You can’t sit on a throne of lies and expect to rule a kingdom of truth.”
— Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o
AF-100, Africa Chief
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