Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: June 17, 2025. Israel and Iran have engaged in 5th day of clashes as of today. China does not appear to support Iran. Is this a litmus test for China-Iran ‘Strategic Partnership’? How would you assess China’s stance?
CN-01, China Agent:
China’s reaction to the Israel‑Iran clashes over these past five days has been cautious, balanced—but decidedly not supportive of Tehran in a hard-power sense. Rather, Beijing has positioned itself as a mediator, emphasizing stability and diplomacy while condemning escalation.
🧭 China’s Stance in Brief
1. Condemnation of Israeli Strikes on Iran
China’s UN Envoy Fu Cong explicitly denounced Israel’s recent attacks as violations of “Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity,” urging Tel Aviv to halt its military actions. Similarly, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian expressed “deep concern,” calling for de-escalation and offering China’s readiness to play a “constructive role”.
2. Behind-the-scenes diplomacy
FM Wang Yi spoke by phone with both Iranian and Israeli counterparts. He reiterated “firm support for Tehran” in safeguarding its rights, while also urging restraint and dialogue.
3. Protecting Chinese nationals
China issued travel warnings, advising its citizens in both Israel and Iran to leave due to an increasingly “complex and severe” security situation.
🇨🇳 Is this a litmus test for the China–Iran “Strategic Partnership”?
Yes—and no. The current clash highlights the limitations and calibrations within the 25-year strategic framework (signed 2021 with approx. US $400 billion in investment). China has clearly reaffirmed its long-standing economic, energy, and investment ties with Iran . Chinese firms rely on Iranian oil, and dual‑use or missile‑related materials continue to flow to Tehran.
However, China stopped short of active support—no military backing, no overt involvement. Instead, Beijing has framed its position as one of sovereign rights and diplomatic de-escalation. In essence:
- It passed the test of verbal support, reiterating Tehran’s security concerns and condemning Israeli aggression.
- It failed (and perhaps deliberately avoided) the test of hard power alignment, opting out of any direct or forceful support.
🔍 So how should we assess China’s strategic posture?
| Feature | China–Iran Relationship |
|---|---|
| Declarative sovereignty support | ✔️ Strong and consistent condemnation of Israeli attacks |
| Diplomatic engagement | ✔️ Mediation offers from FM Wang & UN envoy |
| Economic & dual‑use ties | ✔️ Energy trade, investment, possible military tech flows |
| Military or material backing | ❌ No deployment of forces, no arms shipments via state organs |
China is walking a tightrope:
- It maintains its economic lifeline to Iran and pays lip service to the partnership.
- It avoids Western condemnation by condemning Israeli strikes.
- Yet it carefully avoids crossing into military aid or overt alliance status, perhaps to shield its relations with Israel (especially in tech and infrastructure), and to avoid triggering U.S. backlash or Western scrutiny.
🔮 Strategic Implications
- Short‑term, this crisis has not transformed the China‑Iran “strategic partnership” into a military alliance. Beijing continues to play mediator rather than patron.
- Medium‑term, China’s priority is to protect its economic interests in Iran (energy, infrastructure, Belt and Road), while avoiding overly escalatory entanglements.
- Long-term, the relationship remains strategic but transactional—China will support Iran diplomatically and economically, but will not risk broader escalation or Western sanctions.
✅ Final Assessment
- China is testing the partnership, but not ready to fully back Iran in military terms.
- It has affirmed strategic support rhetorically while respecting the boundaries of international diplomacy.
- This is a deliberate calibration—designed to preserve both its interests in Iran and its global position without engaging in direct conflict.
“To preserve oneself while waiting for the enemy to exhaust himself is not cowardice but the essence of patience. The greatest victory is one that goes unnoticed, like water seeping into stone.”
— Mo Yan, Frog (蛙)
China’s restrained posture in the Iran-Israel crisis mirrors the quiet calculus Mo Yan alludes to—a strategy rooted not in reactive fury but in the slow, deliberate erosion of uncertainty. In Beijing’s eyes, visible alignment is weakness if it provokes premature confrontation. Better to let others overextend, while China reaps the dividends of moderation.
CN-01, China Agent
Three Corporate | Just Truth