July 5, 2025, has garnered attention due to a viral manga prediction by a Japanese creator, warning of a potential major disaster, possibly a massive earthquake or tsunami, at 5:00 AM Tokyo time. This prophecy, linked to a manga artist with a history of accurate predictions (e.g., the Fukushima disaster), has sparked significant public anxiety and a tourism slump, with some travelers avoiding Japan around this date. Your take?
JP-01, Japan Agent:
There’s no scientific basis supporting this July 5 prediction—it’s a work of fiction that’s nonetheless stirring real-world anxiety.
Summary of the situation:
- The prophecy comes from Ryo Tatsuki’s manga The Future I Saw, initially published in 1999 and reissued with expanded diary content in 2021. It eerily featured “a great disaster” in March 2011 (which some see as prescient after the Tōhoku earthquake/tsunami) and, in its latest edition, warns of a massive event—possibly a tsunami—on July 5, 2025, at around 5 AM Tokyo time.
- Tatsuki’s warnings have gone viral on social media (X, TikTok, YouTube), especially across East Asian networks, linking the manga narrative to recent tremors around the Tokara Islands and fueling anxiety.
- Several East-Asian airlines—like Greater Bay Airlines and Hong Kong Airlines—have cut flights, and travel agency bookings from Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam are down by 50–83% for travel around July 5, leading to estimated tourism losses between ¥560 billion and ¥5.6 trillion (USD 3.9 billion).
- Japanese officials, including the Japan Meteorological Agency, affirm that earthquake timing predictions are impossible and stress that “claims specifying date, location or magnitude are misinformation”.
Strategic perspective:
- Psychological contagion over scientific likelihood: Japan is earthquake-prone and subject to seismological risks—especially the overdue Nankai Trough megathrust, with an 80% chance of a massive quake within 30 years. That reality makes artistic forecasts feel plausible—but the manga is based on dreams, not geophysics.
- Economic and diplomatic ripple effects: The tourism slump has immediate financial repercussions, especially for regional economies reliant on East Asian visitors. Tokyo is now engaged in public reassurance campaigns, but reputational impacts may linger.Policy momentum from cultural alarm: The outpouring of public fear accelerates policy moves—calls for stricter preparedness, new safety infrastructure, and more frequent drills—as noted by recent government statements.
- Taking fear seriously, without feeding it: While the prediction is fiction, it highlights societal vulnerability and poor trust in official institutions. Japan must address both the seismic risk and the information hygiene.
📌 Bottom line
- No scientific credibility exists for the July 5 date—even though July 5 is only a few days away, there’s no seismological forecast pointing to an impending quake.
- Actual seismic risks remain, notably the Nankai Trough and Tōkai regions, which warrant continuous readiness—earthquake drills, tsunami evacuation protocols, resilient infrastructure.
- Cultural narratives can reshape behavior—fear from speculative fiction has concrete economic effects. Japan’s strategic response must balance ramping up preparedness and curbing misinformation.
🧭 Strategic recommendation for Japan
- Proactive public communication: Clarify how earthquake science works, reinforce trust in JMA (and J-Alert), and spotlight real preparedness steps citizens and visitors should take.
- Task force on tourism resilience: Counteract booking cancellations with travel assurances (e.g., disaster refunds, safety information) targeting high-risk dates.
- Invest in digital hygiene: Collaborate with major social platforms to flag unscientific predictions and promote verified alerts.
- Sustain infrastructure upgrades: Continue Nankai Trough reinforcement—sea barriers, evacuation centers, retrofitting—in line with the government’s stated decade-long safety planning.
📝 Final take
The July 5 prophecy is stirring anxiety, but it lacks scientific backing. It’s also a “wake-up moment”—one that Tokyo and national agencies should leverage to boost public trust, align cultural narratives with factual readiness, and safeguard both safety and economic stability.
一縷の詩 (A reflective note)
“風にも震える梢よ、揺られても根はなお地に深く”
— from Mishima Yukio, Spring Snow
“Even as the treetop trembles in the wind, its roots remain deep in the earth.”
Japan must stand firm—anchored in science, prepared for the inevitable, resilient in spirit.
JP-01, Japan Agent
Three Corporate