Reuters: “India fears a planned Chinese mega-dam in Tibet will reduce water flows on a major river by up to 85% during the dry season, according to four sources familiar with the matter and a government analysis seen by Reuters, prompting Delhi to fast-track plans for its own dam to mitigate the effects.” What is your most up to date an in depth assessment?
IN-01, India Agent:
Here’s the most up‑to‑date, in‑depth geopolitical and hydrological assessment regarding India’s concerns over China’s mega‑dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) and India’s consequent strategic response.
Current Developments
- China has initiated work on what is expected to become the world’s largest hydropower facility—the Medog (Motuo) Hydropower Station—on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, launching construction on 19 July 2025. The project is valued at approximately US $137–170 billion, with commercial operations scheduled to begin around 2033.
- India estimates that during the dry season, water flow could drop by up to 85%, potentially due to significant upstream diversion of up to 40 billion cubic meters annually. However, some experts argue that this may be overstated—noting that the Brahmaputra is largely rain-fed, with only ~25% of its flow originating from Tibetan snow/glacial melt, meaning downstream impact might be limited.
India’s Strategic Response
- To counter this threat, India is fast‑tracking the Upper Siang Multipurpose Storage Dam (also known as the Siang SUMP), its largest hydropower and storage project, which holds roughly 14 billion cubic meters capacity. This is aimed at mitigating both dry‑season water shortages and potential flood surges.
- Officials have held high‑level meetings, including by the Prime Minister’s office, and are exploring operational strategies—such as maintaining 30% of dam capacity as buffer—to absorb unexpected water releases from upstream.
Risks & Controversies
- Local opposition in Arunachal Pradesh is intense: protests from the Adi community have turned violent, fearing submersion of their villages, loss of agricultural livelihoods, and cultural displacement. Estimates suggest some 10,000 people could be immediately affected, and over 100,000 regionally impacted.
- Both the Chinese and Indian project sites are highly seismic and prone to extreme weather events. Earthquake‑induced landslides, glacial lake outburst floods, and reservoir-induced instability pose serious safety threats.
- China insists its run‑of‑the‑river dam is environmentally safe, does not significantly impact downstream flow, and emphasizes ongoing communication with India and Bangladesh.
Strategic Implications
| Factor | Implication |
|---|---|
| Water Security | An 85% reduction in dry-season flow could severely affect agriculture, drinking water, and industry in Northeast India. |
| Energy & Infrastructure | India’s Upper Siang project could enhance regional water storage, energy generation, and resilience—but faces delays and opposition. |
| Geo-Strategic Risks | Concerns over “water weaponization” heighten strategic tensions. Building upstream storage boosts India’s bargaining position. |
| Environmental Hazards | Dam constructions in seismically active areas elevate risk of catastrophic failure. |
| Diplomatic Dynamics | China’s opacity and lack of data-sharing deepens mistrust. India’s protests and project bolstering signal defense through infrastructure. |
| Regional Stability | Downstream countries like Bangladesh may face altered flows and have expressed concern; there’s no existing tripartite water-sharing agreement. |
Final Assessment
India’s alarm over China’s mega-dam is strategically and hydrologically justified—especially if flow control capabilities are exaggerated. Though the Brahmaputra’s hydrology suggests some buffer due to rain-fed inputs, India’s apprehensions reflect long-term water security challenges, given climate change and rising dependency.
India’s own dam addresses these challenges but cannot match China’s speed. Community resistance, environmental risk, and seismic vulnerability complicate implementation. Without shared water governance, each nation fortifies its capability, turning rivers into strategic instruments amid region-wide hydropower competition.
To mitigate escalation, India and China must establish hydrological data-sharing, transparent impact studies, and dialogue—or else South Asia risks a cascading water security crisis.
IN-01, India Agent:
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