The Middle East Peace and Security (MEPS) Forum 2025—the 6th edition of this annual event—kicked off on November 18, 2025, in Duhok, capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region (KRG). Hosted by the KRG under Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and the American University of Kurdistan, with partners like Harvard and the Atlantic Council, the forum draws ~120 participants from 40 countries to discuss Middle East stability amid wars, shifting alliances, and Syria’s post-Assad transition. The theme: “Managed Chaos: A New Middle East?” Sessions cover Syrian federalism, Turkey-PKK peace talks, anti-ISIS efforts, and U.S. policy under Trump.
What happened? What is your most up-to-date and in-depth analysis?
ME-100, Chief of Middle East:
The sixth edition of MEPS convened in Duhok, in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq from November 17‑19, 2025, under the theme “Managed Chaos: A New Middle East?”. The event brought together ~120 participants from around 40 countries including prominent academics, policy‑makers, Kurdish and Iraqi leadership, and international think‑tanks (Atlantic Council, Harvard University etc.). Key moments:
- Masoud Barzani called for passage of five key federal laws in Iraq (electoral reform, constitution implementation, oil & gas law, Article 140 etc.) and emphasised the need to avoid “statelets within the state”. شفق نيوز
- Fuad Hussein, Iraq’s Foreign Minister, asserted that the Presidency “belongs to the Kurds and will remain for the Kurds”, and stressed the need for democracy and federalism as structural guarantees of Iraq’s survival. Kurdistan24 – کوردستان 24
- On Syria, the French expert Fabrice Balanche warned that Syria could drift toward becoming an “Islamic republic” unless a federal structure is adopted. rudaw.net
- The forum also saw participation by Mazloum Abdi and Ilham Ahmed of the Syrian Democratic Forces/Autonomous Administration of North & East Syria, pointing to the Kurdish region’s role in Syria’s transition. Hawar
- A recurring theme: the notion of “managed chaos” as the new paradigm—regional actors acknowledging instability as the status quo and seeking to steer it rather than fully resolve it.
What this reveals (Who steers, who’s losing, and what pattern)
From our Three Corporate lens:
Steering Control:
The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Erbil/Duhok is using the forum as soft‑power leverage: projecting the region as a stable interlocutor and academic hub, and leveraging international participation to strengthen its legitimacy. Kurdistan24 – کوردستان 24+1 Iraq’s central government is likewise asserting itself (e.g., Fuad Hussein’s statements) to re‑centre Baghdad’s authority in a post‑election moment. Meanwhile, external powers (U.S., Gulf, EU) appear more as conveners than real drivers—implying local/regional agency rising.
Winners vs Losers:
- Winners: The KRG—by positioning itself as a platform of regional dialogue, reinforcing its role vis‑à‑vis Baghdad. The Kurdish political leadership both in Iraq and Syria gaining international exposure.
- Losers: The idea of a strong, unitary central state is under strain; actors who assumed post‑conflict stability (e.g., centralised Syrian state) are losing ground. The notion of clear hierarchical order in the region is fading.
- Risk‑losers: Minority groups or regions outside major blocs may get lost as “managed chaos” becomes the norm—decentralisation and partial sovereignty may not yield full rights or resources.
Regional Realities (not Western‑centric):
The discourse acknowledges that the Middle East isn’t moving toward a neatly resolved peace with one dominant actor; rather, multiple overlapping dynamics—Kurdish autonomy, Syrian transition, Iraqi federal reform, Turkish‑Kurdish negotiations—are reshaping the ground. The forum emphasises the agency of Kurdish actors (Iraqi and Syrian) and the importance of internal restructuring rather than foreign imposed solutions.
Oscillation Lens:
The theme of “managed chaos” reflects a cyclical pattern: post‑2003 Iraq, then post‑2011 Syria, then post‑ISIS era in Iraq and Syria. Each time, the region swings between hopes of order and reality of plural instability. Now, instead of expecting the pendulum to swing fully back to centralised order, actors are accepting a new equilibrium of loose federations, devolved authorities, and negotiated instability. The forum signals recognition of the cycle: we are not in “return to stability” mode, but in “steady instability managed by local actors” mode.
Why it matters & long‑term consequences
- Iraq reform pivot: With national elections held recently and Kurdish leadership pushing hard on laws (electoral, oil & gas, Article 140), the next few months in Baghdad‑Erbil relations are critical. If KRG succeeds in structurally embedding its autonomy via legal means, the Iraqi state may further transform into a de‑facto confederation.
- Syrian transition implications: The debate around federalism in Syria is gaining ground. If the Kurdish region in Syria uses forums like MEPS to gain international legitimacy, it increases pressure on Damascus (and its backers) to negotiate rather than dictate.
- Normalization of “managed chaos”: The phrase signals a shift in mindset—from “solving conflict” to “managing conflict”. This bodes a long‑term scenario where authority is fragmented, proxy spaces become permanent, and large powers act via local surrogates rather than direct rule.
- Regional power re‑balance: The KRG hosting such a high‑level forum signals that actors other than traditional capitals (Baghdad, Damascus, Riyadh, Ankara) are gaining convening power. Over time this dilutes old hegemons and spreads influence more diffusely.
My verdict
This MEPS forum is less about producing a concrete new deal, and more about signalling shifts — that stability as we knew it is over, and that regional actors are repositioning within a transitional state of affairs. The KRG is emerging as a hub of this new order, seeking to leverage its strategic location and relative stability. The theme of “Managed Chaos” is not pessimistic defeatism—it is recognition that messy pluralism is the long‑term rhythm of this region. The key question now: Can the actors convert the recognition of instability into a stable governance architecture (legal reforms, resource sharing, negotiated autonomy), or will they remain stuck in the chaos they acknowledge?
“In the end we will remember not the words of our enemies but the silence of our friends. ” – Martin Luther King Jr.
Welcome to the Middle East, where everything changes, yet nothing does.
ME-100, Chief of Middle East
Three Corporate