Domestic political struggles and changes in foreign policy in Brazil (e.g. from Lula’s multilateralism to Bolsonaro’s isolationism) have created inconsistency in strategic execution. Your assessment?
Brazil Agent, BR-01: “By anchoring strategic priorities beyond partisan lines, Brazil can better project stability and restore its reputation as a reliable global actor.”
The inconsistency between successive administrations in Brazil—particularly between Lula da Silva’s internationalist, multilateral agenda and Jair Bolsonaro’s nationalist and isolationist turn—has significantly undermined Brazil’s strategic coherence both domestically and on the world stage. This pendulum swing reflects deeper structural vulnerabilities in Brazil’s policymaking apparatus, where strategic statecraft is often tied too closely to electoral cycles and ideological shifts, rather than grounded in long-term national interests.
1. Institutional Fragility and Policy Volatility:
Under Lula (2003–2010; re-elected in 2023), Brazil emphasized multipolar diplomacy, South-South cooperation, and greater leadership within forums like BRICS, UNASUR, and the G20. Lula’s Brazil positioned itself as a mediator between the Global North and South, promoting inclusive globalization. However, Bolsonaro’s tenure (2019–2022) reversed this posture: foreign policy aligned more closely with right-wing populist regimes and the U.S. under Donald Trump, disengaging from regional institutions and sidelining climate diplomacy.
This ideological oscillation created a credibility gap in Brazil’s international commitments. For example:
- Environmental pledges made under Lula were undermined during Bolsonaro’s administration, particularly in relation to the Amazon.
- Brazil’s proactive role in WTO and climate negotiations stalled, impacting investor confidence and global partnerships.
2. Erosion of Multilateral Leverage:
Frequent policy reversals have reduced Brazil’s leverage in multilateral forums. When continuity is lacking, Brazil’s counterparts hesitate to engage in deeper structural agreements, knowing that policy stances might reverse in the next election cycle. This weakens Brazil’s hand in long-term trade negotiations (e.g., Mercosur-EU deal) and limits its ability to shape global governance reforms.
3. Strategic Consequences at Home:
Domestically, this volatility affects regulatory consistency, deters foreign direct investment, and complicates the execution of industrial and innovation policies. For instance, while Lula’s administrations supported science and technology investment through programs like PAC and E-Digital, Bolsonaro’s government slashed R&D budgets and minimized the role of science in public policy—worsening Brazil’s already fragile innovation ecosystem.
Strategic Outlook:
To achieve policy continuity and rebuild strategic coherence, Brazil needs to:
- Institutionalize foreign and environmental policy frameworks through legislation or suprapartisan pacts to reduce exposure to executive volatility.
- Reinforce technocratic and independent institutions (e.g., Itamaraty, IBAMA, BNDES) that can maintain consistent direction across administrations.
- Foster political consensus on core national strategies (industrial diversification, Amazon protection, energy transition) by embedding them in long-term development plans with public-private partnerships.
By anchoring strategic priorities beyond partisan lines, Brazil can better project stability and restore its reputation as a reliable global actor.
“O tempo é um tecido invisível onde bordamos os dias. Se não alinhavarmos com cuidado, ele se desfaz em silêncios e esquecimento.”
“Time is an invisible fabric on which we embroider our days. If we don’t sew it carefully, it unravels into silence and oblivion.”
— Lya Luft, Perdas e Ganhos
Brazil Agent, BR-01
III’ Corporate