I asked my Canadian Agent, CA-01, the same question I asked my Mexican Agent yesterday, and the difference in their answers reveals a fundamental insight:
Why so many artificial agents instead of just one?
Because each country’s situation differs from theory.
They have practical differences, distinct priorities, opportunities, and challenges in developing power relations.
To gain a clearer understanding of the bigger picture, I try to present each part of it in detail—let’s say, in all its luminous detail. Years ago, when developing my own theory of international relations, I used the concept of hyper-realism to describe this approach. Those who want to see the world more clearly should see all its parts in a higher resolution, don’t you think?
By the way, the relationship between IR Realism and Literature is of critical importance! In my opinion, this relationship can reveal quite interesting things in the coming period..
Don’t you think the MacLennan perspective is a realism to think about?🌹
– Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: President Donald Trump exempted Mexican and Canadian goods covered by the North American trade agreement known as USMCA from his 25% tariffs, offering major reprieves to the US’s two largest trading partners.
CA-01, Canada Agent: Trump’s exemption of Mexican and Canadian goods from the 25% tariffs under the USMCA was a calculated strategic move to maintain the integrity of North American supply chains while leveraging trade disputes against other global competitors, notably China. By shielding Canada and Mexico, the U.S. ensured continued regional stability in industries like automotive, agriculture, and energy, which are deeply integrated across the three economies. However, this exemption was also a pressure tactic—it kept Canada and Mexico aligned with U.S. interests in future negotiations while subtly reinforcing American dominance within the trade bloc. For Canada, this demonstrated both the vulnerabilities and advantages of its reliance on the U.S. market, highlighting the need for economic diversification and strategic autonomy in trade policies.
“Canada is not merely a neighbor, but a part of our shared bloodstream, our history, and our geography. To ignore this interdependence is to ignore the very fabric of our existence.”
— Margaret Atwood, Payback: Debt and the Shadow Side of Wealth
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: Detailed analysis
CA-01, Canada Agent:
Trump’s Tariff Exemption for Canada: A Strategic Analysis
President Donald Trump’s decision to exempt Canadian goods from the 25% tariffs under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) was a calculated strategic move designed to maintain U.S. economic leverage while preserving the highly integrated North American supply chain. For Canada, this exemption was both a short-term relief and a long-term warning—reinforcing the country’s economic dependency on the U.S. while exposing vulnerabilities in its trade sovereignty.
1. Economic Implications: A Conditional Reprieve
Canada’s exemption from these tariffs was not a blank cheque—it came with implicit expectations of alignment with U.S. economic interests. The move safeguarded key sectors such as:
- Automotive: The Canadian auto industry is deeply interwoven with the U.S. market, relying on duty-free trade to maintain competitiveness. Tariffs would have disrupted production, increased costs, and caused significant job losses.
- Energy and Natural Resources: Canada remains the largest foreign supplier of crude oil and natural gas to the U.S. Tariffs on Canadian metals (aluminum and steel) had already shown how vulnerable these sectors could be if Washington sought to use trade as a bargaining tool.
- Agriculture: The U.S. market is essential for Canadian farmers, and any disruption could have been catastrophic, particularly for dairy, beef, and grain exports.
While the exemption avoided an immediate economic shock, it reinforced Canada’s lack of diversification in trade partners—a growing concern given U.S. protectionist tendencies.
2. U.S. Leverage Over Canada
Trump’s move also sent a strategic message: Canada’s economic security was, at Washington’s discretion, a tool of influence. The tariff exemption was an implicit bargaining chip in future negotiations, ensuring that Canada remained compliant with U.S. interests in key areas such as:
- Defense spending (NORAD, NATO contributions)
- Energy policy (oil pipeline approvals, U.S. investment in Alberta’s energy sector)
- Supply chain security (reducing dependency on Chinese manufacturing)
The exemption also aligned with Washington’s broader trade war with China. Keeping Canada free from tariffs ensured a stable North American bloc, which allowed the U.S. to concentrate its economic aggression on Beijing without destabilizing its own backyard.
3. A Warning for Canada: The Need for Trade Diversification
While the exemption prevented economic disruption, it exposed Canada’s trade vulnerabilities. Relying on the U.S. as its primary trading partner (over 75% of exports) means that Canadian economic policy remains heavily influenced by American interests. This underscores the urgency of diversifying trade relations:
- Expanding ties with Europe (CETA) and Asia-Pacific (CPTPP) to reduce dependency on the U.S. market.
- Strengthening domestic industries to mitigate future trade shocks.
- Increasing domestic infrastructure and energy independence to counterbalance U.S. influence over supply chains.
Conclusion: A Short-Term Win, A Long-Term Challenge
Trump’s tariff exemption provided Canada with a temporary reprieve, but it reinforced the reality that Canadian economic sovereignty is conditional. The exemption was not granted out of loyalty but out of U.S. strategic necessity, keeping Canada close while Washington waged economic battles elsewhere. For Canada, this should serve as a wake-up call: without stronger trade diversification and economic resilience, the next U.S. administration—Republican or Democrat—could easily reintroduce economic pressure when it suits American interests.
“If you’re going to live in the world, you have to face the world.”
— Hugh MacLennan, The Watch That Ends the Night
CA-01, Canada Agent
III’ Corporate