MUHAMMET ALİ ZURNACI
A threat perception that wears down continental security architectures ensures an increase in defense expenditures. While the Ukraine crisis serves as a major signal with the potential to spread from the Northeast across the entire European continent, the Greek-Turkish tension may trigger a dynamic capable of shaking Europe from the Near East–East Europe axis.
This raises important questions: Is the eastern flank of Europe moving toward a more definitive set of alliances, or will it remain under shaky and forced security umbrellas? When will the enlarged NATO clarify its long-term stance on Turkey’s interests? What are the limits of Turkish-Russian relations behind the scenes? Under what conditions can these two countries find common ground on crises in Azerbaijan and Syria? Can shared interests between them be amplified? It seems that the calculations of possible costs are ongoing.
Although conspiracy theories about U.S. involvement and arms sales may seem credible at first glance, the instability on the ground is not an abstract scenario. Actors employing hard force are acting extremely harshly, even when operating within their own limits. The German Defense Minister’s emphasis on Europeans investing more in defense to ease the burden on the United States is a passive-aggressive acknowledgment of shared responsibility and a declaration that “the price of European security is accepted.” This is not a choice; it is a story of have to.
Can Germany take on the role of France at a time when Russian influence is being discussed across all of Eastern Europe? What would Charlie CheckPoint say about Ukraine joining NATO? Why is France so quiet these days? Could a Cold and Armed Europe handle potential unrest? Can unhappy and flu-stricken Europeans force their governments into snap elections in the dead of winter? Forget the future and remember the past. Will the Ottomans always be considered defeated because they were allied with Germany? Again and again?
These are not divine questions.
This is a story of have to.
MAZ Articles, Trial Releases, September 14, 2022