Category: Foresight
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Counter Strategy PEK
Environmental Conditioning is likely to force PEK into making quick decisions. Turkey is deeply involved in diplomatic activity, searching for areas of maneuver despite feeling increasingly cornered by the hyperactive counter-diplomatic moves of other regional middle powers attempting to influence regional and subregional functions. Turkey remains hesitant about cross-border operations (land and maritime) due to the potential…
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2023 Forward
Swaying PEK in the Wind of Global Power Competition While each actor strives to become the dominant force in the Near/Middle East and the Eurasian/Caucasus regions, the natural-environmental realities of global and regional power competition set clear boundaries on their subjective actions. All these actors are caught in fascinating swings between “existential threats” and “rational…
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Soaring Costs
The Dominoes and the Day Goes By The costs of the Ukraine crisis, compounded by the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, continue to cause ripples not only in the destabilized region but across the globe. The intricate relationship between defense budgets and inflation creates an uncertain balance for nearly every country in the medium…
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Early Celebration
Misunderstanding Soft Power Recent developments on the ground have made it clear that Russia, faced with the need to narrow its front and increase the cost of using force in Ukraine, is attempting to conceal its challenging situation through annexation and forced, insincere celebrations. This “show must go on” tactic is a poor choice for…
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Visions
Prescribed Analyses A potential Taiwan intervention is driven by three main economic goals: downsizing the Chinese economy, reducing production costs by shifting inexpensive production to even lower-cost alternatives, and strategically transferring the cost of trade imbalances to China. The military consequences involve a grand strategy with maritime leverage for long-term gain, psychological superiority across the…