I asked III’ Corporate’s Eurasia chief EA-100 to comment on the latest joint statements made regarding Cyprus during the EU-Central Asia Summit.
His take: “This is not about Cyprus. It is about strategic signaling in a multipolar Eurasia. Central Asian states are mastering the art of hedging—keeping Turkey close, but Brussels closer when needed. The key shift is this: they are asserting narrative independence, no longer subscribing wholesale to any single sphere of influence.”
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Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: During the EU-Central Asia summit in Samarkand on April 3–4, 2025,Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan issued a joint declaration supporting UN Security Council Resolutions 541 (1983) and 550 (1984). These resolutions condemn the declaration of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) as illegal and call for non-recognition of the TRNC, affirming the Republic of Cyprus (Greek Cypriot administration) as the legitimate government. They also appointed ambassadors to the Republic of Cyprus, signaling diplomatic recognition of its sovereignty. I want you to analyze the situation as deep as possible.
EA-100, Eurasia Chief:
The recent developments involving Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan—specifically their joint declaration supporting UN Security Council Resolutions 541 (1983) and 550 (1984) during the EU-Central Asia summit in Samarkand on April 3–4, 2025, and their moves to appoint ambassadors to the Republic of Cyprus—represent a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the region.
Background on UN Security Council Resolutions 541 and 550
UN Security Council Resolution 541 (1983) declared the unilateral declaration of independence by the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) as legally invalid and called for its withdrawal. Resolution 550 (1984) further condemned the secessionist activities in the occupied part of Cyprus and called upon all states not to recognize any Cypriot state other than the Republic of Cyprus. These resolutions have long been a cornerstone of international policy regarding the Cyprus issue.
Central Asian States’ Position and Actions
Uzbekistan’s appointment of its first ambassador to the Republic of Cyprus in December 2024 marked a significant step in its diplomatic relations, as Ambassador Abat Fayzullayev presented his credentials to President Nikos Christodoulides . This move was followed by similar actions from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, signaling a collective regional stance.Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Cyprus+4Gazeta.uz+4https://yuz.uz+4
Geopolitical Implications
- Alignment with International Norms: By supporting the UN resolutions, these Central Asian countries are aligning themselves with established international norms and the broader international community’s stance on the Cyprus issue.
- Strengthening EU Relations: The EU-Central Asia summit underscored the EU’s commitment to deepening ties with Central Asian nations. The Central Asian states’ support for the UN resolutions can be seen as a gesture to strengthen their relationships with the EU, which has consistently supported the sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus .Consilium+1The Guardian+1
- Regional Dynamics: This collective stance may influence the dynamics within the Organization of Turkic States, where Turkey plays a significant role. The Central Asian countries’ position might lead to nuanced diplomatic engagements within the organization, balancing their relations with both Turkey and the EU.
Conclusion
The joint declaration by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, along with their diplomatic engagements with the Republic of Cyprus, reflect a strategic alignment with international law and a desire to bolster relations with the European Union. These actions signify a notable shift in the foreign policy orientations of these Central Asian nations, potentially impacting regional alliances and diplomatic relations.
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: How do you analyze this ‘notable shift’?
EA-100, Eurasia Chief:
The alignment of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan with UNSC Resolutions 541 and 550 and their formal diplomatic recognition of the Republic of Cyprus represents a notable geopolitical recalibration—not just a routine gesture of adherence to international law, but a multidimensional signal of strategic repositioning. Here’s the deep breakdown:
🔹 Strategic Depth: What’s Really Shifting?
1. Recalibrating Eurasian Diplomacy These moves signal a subtle but deliberate distancing from Ankara’s geopolitical framing. All three Central Asian states are members or observers in the Organization of Turkic States(OTS), where Turkey positions itself as a cultural and geopolitical leader. By siding with the EU and international consensus on Cyprus—which runs counter to Turkey’s stance—Astana, Tashkent, and Ashgabat are asserting foreign policy autonomy within the Turkic world.
This is a return to multi-vectorism—a legacy approach in Central Asian diplomacy where states avoid overdependence on any one power (be it Russia, China, or Turkey).
2. The EU-Central Asia Vector This declaration was not spontaneous—it coincided with the first-ever EU-Central Asia Summit. The symbolism is sharp: in exchange for EU economic and political engagement (particularly in the context of infrastructure, green energy, and connectivity), Central Asian states are offering diplomatic alignment with key EU foreign policy positions.
Cyprus, as an EU member state, becomes a proxy here: support for Nicosia is a currency of trust-building with Brussels.
3. Response to the Post-Ukraine Order The Ukraine war and the West’s sanctions on Russia pushed Central Asia to diversify away from Russian dependency. Turkey was initially a key alternative. But as Ankara increasingly pushes its pan-Turkic vision, these countries now hedge by engaging more robustly with the EU. The Cyprus issue is thus a litmus test: they are showing the EU that they are not in lockstep with Turkey.
🔹 Steering Control & Agenda Awareness
What’s left unsaid—and who benefits?
- Turkey’s Isolation Within the Turkic Sphere? While not a frontal challenge, this move symbolically dilutes Turkish geopolitical leadership in Eurasia. It reflects a discomfort with Ankara’s assertiveness in shaping the OTS as an extension of its own foreign policy.
- EU’s Strategic Communication Win For Brussels, this is a diplomatic soft power success. It sends a message to member states that the EU’s global influence—despite internal fragmentation—remains persuasive in normative geopolitics.
- China Watching Quietly Beijing remains silent but observant. These are its Belt and Road corridor states. While China avoids entanglement in Cyprus or pan-Turkism, it welcomes any Central Asian hedging that weakens Turkish or Western singular influence. For Beijing, multipolarity here is ideal.
🔹 Forecast: What to Watch
- Turkey’s Reaction: Will Ankara push back diplomatically? Expect calibrated responses—not escalation—but potential diplomatic quiet pressure within the OTS or bilateral channels.
- Deeper EU-Central Asia Integration: This move could fast-track EU-Central Asia pacts—especially on energy corridors, climate investments, and digital infrastructure.
- Narrative Warfare Frontlines: Expect Turkish state media to subtly frame this as “Western pressure” or “disappointment.” Watch also for quiet Turkish lobbying behind closed doors to halt this trend.
🔹 Bottom Line
This is not about Cyprus. It is about strategic signaling in a multipolar Eurasia. Central Asian states are mastering the art of hedging—keeping Turkey close, but Brussels closer when needed. The key shift is this: they are asserting narrative independence, no longer subscribing wholesale to any single sphere of influence.
“There are times when silence is more powerful than speech. And yet, in that silence, the world turns, choices are made, alliances shift, and nothing is quite the same again.”
— Chingiz Aitmatov, The Day Lasts More Than a Hundred Years (Kyrgyzstan)
EA-100, Chief of Eurasia
III’ Corporate