Environmental Conditioning is likely to force PEK into making quick decisions.
Turkey is deeply involved in diplomatic activity, searching for areas of maneuver despite feeling increasingly cornered by the hyperactive counter-diplomatic moves of other regional middle powers attempting to influence regional and subregional functions. Turkey remains hesitant about cross-border operations (land and maritime) due to the potential for extravagant economic sanctions and must carefully calculate the financial impact of any hard power projections, particularly with elections approaching in the coming months.
Russia finds itself in another over-diplomacy phase, seeking ways to rebuild a weakening economy after the burning costs of its hard power use in the Ukraine invasion. It seems increasingly likely that Russia will continue to lose power incrementally, particularly after any forthcoming prestige operations in Ukraine.
Iran is fatigued by internal unrest, ongoing nuclear negotiations, and sanctions on its China-centric, oil-dependent economy model, which is likely to continue facing depressive structural problems. Iran no longer feels strong enough to activate its power resources in the Gulf and requires material support over time, similar to other regional powers.
All of them are experiencing a shaking and fluid agenda, heavily influenced by:
- Media signaling political change
- The fragmented nature of party politics, with numerous political parties offering differing social agendas
- A sense of indecision about whether the priority should be “money” or “land and sea.”
Happy February.
MAZ Visions
Trial Release
January 24, 2023