Misunderstanding Soft Power
Recent developments on the ground have made it clear that Russia, faced with the need to narrow its front and increase the cost of using force in Ukraine, is attempting to conceal its challenging situation through annexation and forced, insincere celebrations. This “show must go on” tactic is a poor choice for soft power projection, resulting in Russia paying a much higher price than initially planned. As MAZ Foresights astutely predicted in September 2021, Russia “would pay military and economic costs beyond her estimates and calculations.”
In July, I highlighted that the uncertain moves of Russian military decision-makers were directly tied to unprecedented developments on the ground. What appeared to be relatively effective power projection now seems burdened by tougher days ahead. Behaving beyond its power limits and engaging in prolonged, multi-front warfare forced Russia to recalculate, narrow its focus, and reduce its targets. We now find ourselves at a critical stage in the power struggle of the Ukraine crisis. Can the Transatlantic Alliance demonstrate its ability to reshape the power dynamics whenever and however it desires, or will it risk losing prestige in the eyes of global power brokers?
Let’s examine the fundamental scenario.
Regionalization initiatives in the Caucasus and Central Asia seem poised for new challenges. The Samarkand Meeting served as an attempt to assert “we exist,” or perhaps a silent narrative of sadness. It resembled the meeting between Germany and France, where they exchanged desperate smiles just before the Ukraine crisis. The artificially strengthened image of a weakening Erdogan and China’s recent move in alignment with Russia already confirm this introverted, passive alliance. Under these conditions, a regional climate as challenging as that of the Middle East appears to be emerging across Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.
Russia may find it problematic to raise its hand, and lowering it poses a different set of challenges. The annexation of Ukraine, while appearing as a military gain, will push Russia further into multifaceted desperation and complex maneuvering.
The premature celebration of annexation, marked by open displays of triumph, seems more irritating than sympathetic amid the ongoing war. Displays of strength are employed only by those in need, and advising Russia’s leader to opt for such a cognitively negative show is a misunderstanding of soft power. Life is often simpler than we think, and in this case, it’s a misinterpretation of the essence of soft power.
Muhammet Ali Zurnaci
MAZ Articles
Trial Release
October 3, 2022