Impressing the Sphere of Influence in Between
“Escalate to De-escalate” and “Escalate to Escalate”
Despite downsizing its ultimate target, the increasingly radical behavior of the Russian military now confirms the expectations outlined in the MAZ Foresight report released last week:
- Growing need for shows.
- Producing fear.
By targeting power grids in Kyiv, Russia is attempting to impress the ground and send subliminal messages across Eastern Europe. This development was clearly foresighted in the MAZ 2021 Report:
- Power grids of Kyiv will be targeted.
- The whole Baltics and Eastern Europe will be influenced this way.
The coming days will witness an asymmetrical test. While Russia attempts to infiltrate power centers, Ukraine will calculate its best options for deterrence. Beyond drone operations, the hardening asymmetries are likely to escalate clashes to include the use of all types and ranges of missiles—except nuclear weapons.
Russia’s role in determining escalation does not appear to be spiraling out of control. The Russian leadership seems well aware that pressing the “red button” would unite the entire world in unleashing terror upon Moscow. In my view, Russian decision-makers are attempting to balance the ground before making decisive moves to occupy their areas of influence with the aid of conscriptions—in other words, balancing before containment.
We are currently navigating a psychologically negative interlude. What we are witnessing now is neither “escalate to de-escalate” nor “escalate to escalate,” but rather a controlled escalation to instill fear.
Muhammet Ali Zurnaci
MAZ Articles
Trial Release
October 18, 2022