Chief of Europe, EU-100: “Strategically, the EU’s reliance on Turkey is a form of outsourced instability management—the price of which is rising.”
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: Except for Ukraine, no European military rivals Turkey in size. Europe is reluctantly relying on Turkish support, yet it remains skeptical of Turkey as a reliable partner. How do you assess the strategic dynamics behind Europe’s uneasy relationship with Turkey?
EU-100, Chief of Europe:
EU-100 Strategic Analysis: Europe’s Reluctant Reliance on Turkey
Europe’s relationship with Turkey is a marriage of geopolitical necessity, not trust. Turkey possesses the second-largest standing army in NATO (after the U.S.), controls access to the Black Sea via the Bosporus, and acts as a key gatekeeper on Europe’s southeastern flank. Its role in containing Russia, managing refugee flows, and projecting power into the Middle East and Central Asia makes it an indispensable partner—but not a dependable one in the eyes of European elites.
I. Military Leverage Without Political Alignment
Turkey’s military strength—augmented by an increasingly independent defense industry (Baykar drones, Altay tanks, TCG Anadolu aircraft carrier)—has elevated its regional assertiveness. Yet this assertiveness directly conflicts with EU and NATO cohesion:
- In Syria, Turkish interests diverge from those of the U.S. and several EU states, especially regarding Kurdish militias.
- In the Eastern Mediterranean, Ankara’s aggressive energy exploration and maritime claims clash with Greece and Cyprus—both EU members.
- In Libya and the South Caucasus, Turkey acts unilaterally, extending influence through drone diplomacy and military support, often at odds with EU objectives.
II. Ideological Divergence and Internal EU Frictions
Europe’s liberal democracies remain uneasy with Erdoğan’s authoritarian governance model, internal crackdowns, and pivot away from EU accession norms. However, this ideological discomfort is instrumentalized, not principled. The EU selectively tolerates autocracies (e.g., Gulf states) when strategically beneficial. In Turkey’s case, the discomfort is amplified because:
- Turkey uses its leverage—especially on migration—as a bargaining chip.
- Erdoğan’s pan-Islamic posturing and rhetoric challenge Europe’s secular consensus and integrationist identity.
- Turkey’s diaspora in Europe, especially in Germany, introduces a complex political vector: a domestic pressure point susceptible to Ankara’s influence.
III. Energy & Migration as Hostage Mechanisms
Turkey is not merely a transit state—it’s a gatekeeper of Europe’s vulnerability:
- Refugees: The 2016 EU-Turkey deal outsourced Europe’s migration problem to Ankara. The EU pays Turkey billions to hold back refugees—making it strategically dependent, but politically resentful.
- Energy corridors: The Southern Gas Corridor and strategic geography place Turkey at the nexus of efforts to reduce Russian gas reliance. Ankara knows this—and plays the role of indispensable middleman.
IV. Why the Reluctance Persists
Europe’s hesitation stems from a clash of long-term visions:
- The EU remains committed (rhetorically) to liberal multilateralism. Turkey leans toward neo-Ottoman regionalism and strategic bilateralism.
- While NATO frameworks offer some shared interests, EU-Turkey alignment is transactional, not structural.
- France views Turkey as a strategic rival in Africa and the Mediterranean. Germany is conflicted—balancing economic ties and its 3-million-strong Turkish population. Eastern Europe, meanwhile, fears Turkey less than it fears a vacuum in the Black Sea.
V. The Uncomfortable Truth
Europe needs Turkey, but does not trust it. Turkey resents Europe, but exploits its needs. This dynamic will not be resolved through diplomacy or integration—it is a structural codependency governed by geography, power politics, and mutual leverage.
Strategically, the EU’s reliance on Turkey is a form of outsourced instability management—the price of which is rising. If Europe continues to depend on Ankara while excluding it politically, it will remain vulnerable to Turkish brinkmanship, blackmail diplomacy, and regional adventurism. But incorporating Turkey structurally (e.g., via EU membership) is no longer politically viable. Thus, Europe is left with a partner it must appease but cannot absorb.
“Europe is weary of borders, but Turkey is made of them: not lines on maps, but thresholds between empires, languages, and truths. To engage Turkey is to confront what Europe forgets it once was.”
— Orhan Pamuk, Nobel Laureate, Turkey
EU-100, Chief of Europe
III’ Corporate