III’ Corporate’s Europe Chief, EU-100

I spoke to III’ Corporate’s Europe Chief, EU-100, about the strategic significance of Trump’s meeting with Macron in Washington today.

He provided a highly rational response when analyzing expert opinions—an important aspect. However, even more crucially, I posed a question to deepen the discussion:

‘Do you think dissolution is not a bold analysis?’

His response demonstrated that he is a strategist who thinks with nuance.

EU-100 is a true Chief!

Talk to him, debate with him, examine the words he chooses in his analysis—witness his expertise in action!

---

Publicly, both leaders exchanged pleasantries—Trump referred to Macron as a “very special man,” while Macron lauded Trump’s “deterrence capacity.” However, beneath this cordial facade, their strategic approaches to the Ukraine crisis revealed a widening transatlantic rift.

Divergent Strategies on Ukraine

President Trump emphasized the urgency of a swift ceasefire, expressing intentions to negotiate directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin and suggesting the deployment of European peacekeeping forces post-agreement. He also proposed that Ukraine share its mineral wealth with the U.S. as compensation for military aid—a move that intertwines economic interests with foreign policy. 

reuters.com

In contrast, President Macron advocated for a more measured approach, insisting that any peace agreement must not equate to Ukrainian capitulation. He underscored the necessity of security guarantees to uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty and emphasized that Europe should play a central role in both the negotiation process and the nation’s reconstruction. 

cadenaser.com

Implications for Transatlantic Relations

This meeting highlights a critical juncture in U.S.-European relations. Trump’s unilateral inclinations and transactional diplomacy signal a potential shift away from traditional alliances, prompting European leaders to reconsider their strategic autonomy. The formation of the “Weimar+” group—a coalition including France, Germany, Poland, the UK, and other European entities—exemplifies Europe’s initiative to assert its geopolitical influence independently, especially in response to U.S. policies that may sideline European interests. 

en.wikipedia.org

Conclusion

While the Trump-Macron meeting was enveloped in diplomatic niceties, the substantive policy differences, particularly regarding Ukraine, underscore a recalibration of transatlantic relations. Europe’s pursuit of strategic autonomy, juxtaposed with America’s evolving foreign policy stance, suggests a redefining of roles and alliances in the global arena.

---

“Europe will be forged in crises, and will be the sum of the solutions adopted for those crises.”

— Jean Monnet, French political economist and diplomat

– Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: Tell me your prediction.

– EU-100, Chief of Europe: Trump-Macron Meeting: A Prelude to a Fractured Transatlantic Order?

The Trump-Macron summit, staged as a cordial exchange, was in reality an inflection point for U.S.-European relations. Beyond the pleasantries and diplomatic theater, the underlying fractures in transatlantic strategy—particularly on Ukraine and European strategic autonomy—herald a decisive shift in the global balance of power.

What Comes Next? A Likely Trajectory

1. A Deepening U.S.-EU Divide on Ukraine
   • Trump’s push for a rapid ceasefire in Ukraine, potentially brokered with Putin, is a direct affront to Macron’s insistence on a long-term security framework that prevents a “peace on Russia’s terms.”
   • If Trump proceeds with unilateral negotiations, Europe—led by France and Germany—may increasingly bypass Washington to provide direct military support and security guarantees for Ukraine.
   • This could accelerate the formation of a European Defense Bloc, effectively sidelining NATO in favor of a Franco-German-Polish-led military initiative.
2. Europe’s Response: “Strategic Autonomy” Becomes a Necessity, Not Just Rhetoric
   • Macron’s diplomatic strategy has long revolved around reducing Europe’s dependence on the U.S. for defense, technology, and economic stability.
   • With Trump signaling a transactional approach to alliances (e.g., suggesting Ukraine “repay” the U.S. for military aid), European capitals will see no choice but to fast-track defense cooperation.
   • The most likely outcome? A new Weimar+ initiative morphing into a proto-European military force, loosely independent from NATO, but still leveraging its infrastructure.
3. Trump’s America: A Return to Realpolitik and Selective Isolationism
   • Trump’s rhetoric indicates that his second term will be marked by selective engagement rather than global leadership.
   • Washington will prioritize economic deals over ideological alliances, focusing on trade renegotiations and military-industrial interests.
   • Expect a “pay-to-play” approach to NATO, where U.S. commitments to Europe will hinge on financial contributions and trade concessions.
   • The most significant risk? A reconfiguration of global security where Europe is left to fend for itself against an aggressive Russia, an assertive China, and an unpredictable U.S. presidency.

The Real Takeaway: A Fractured Western Order

• The Trump-Macron meeting is not just about Ukraine; it is the precursor to a bipolar transatlantic order where the U.S. and Europe pursue increasingly divergent security and economic strategies.
• With Macron spearheading efforts to decouple European defense policy from Washington’s whims, this moment could mark the beginning of the end for NATO as we know it.
• The EU, once content with relying on U.S. deterrence, now faces a stark choice: remain a subordinate to Washington’s shifting policies or finally embrace true strategic sovereignty.

Final Thought

This is not a return to the Cold War order but the emergence of a multipolar West, where Europe and the U.S. no longer march in lockstep. Whether this divergence leads to a more resilient Europe or an exposed continent vulnerable to Russian and Chinese influence remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the post-WWII Atlantic order is dissolving.

---

“He who controls others may be powerful, but he who has mastered himself is mightier still.”
— Lao Tzu, as interpreted in European strategic thought

–Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: Summarize your prediction.

–EU-100, Chief of Europe:

Summary of Prediction: A Fracturing Transatlantic Order

1. U.S.-Europe Rift on Ukraine – Trump’s push for a swift ceasefire, possibly on Russia’s terms, will clash with Macron’s insistence on long-term European security guarantees. Europe may bypass Washington and reinforce Ukraine directly.
2. European Strategic Autonomy Accelerates – Facing an unpredictable U.S., France, Germany, and Poland will likely fast-track a European Defense Bloc, reducing NATO reliance. The “Weimar+” format may evolve into a new military force.
3. Trump’s Selective Isolationism – Expect a pay-to-play NATO, where U.S. commitments depend on European financial and trade concessions. Trump’s foreign policy will prioritize economic deals over ideological alliances.
4. End of Post-WWII Western Unity – The U.S. and Europe are entering a bipolar transatlantic era, no longer moving in lockstep. This could either strengthen Europe’s sovereignty or leave it vulnerable to Russia and China.

Bottom Line: The post-WWII Atlantic order is dissolving. Europe must either achieve true strategic independence or risk geopolitical exposure.

– Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: Don’t you think ‘dissolution’ is a bold analysis?

– EU-100, Chief of Europe:

Yes, “dissolution” is a strong word—but it reflects the reality that the post-WWII Atlantic order is no longer intact in its original form. That does not mean the U.S.-Europe relationship will vanish overnight, but it does mean that the structure and function of the alliance are undergoing an irreversible transformation.

Why Not Just “Strain” or “Shift”?

• Previous tensions (e.g., during the Iraq War or Trump’s first term) were temporary disruptions within a fundamentally stable alliance.
• This time, the divergence is structural: Europe is actively preparing for a future where the U.S. may not be its ultimate security guarantor.
• Trump’s selective engagement with NATO and emphasis on transactional alliances means Europe must either step up or risk becoming geopolitically exposed.

A More Precise Term? “Reconfiguration”

Perhaps “reconfiguration” is a more accurate term than “dissolution.” The old Atlantic order—where Europe relied on U.S. leadership in security and trade—is breaking down. In its place, a more multipolar, fragmented, and unpredictable Western order is emerging.

Conclusion

The U.S. and Europe will remain connected, but the nature of that connection is shifting from hierarchical dependence(U.S.-led NATO, economic alignment) to pragmatic cooperation with competing interests. This transition is not just a policy shift—it’s a structural realignment.

– EU-100, Chief of Europe

III’ Corporate