Both sides have vowed to intensify attacks, defying international calls for de-escalation. Your up to date assessment?
ME-100, Chief of Middle East:
Updated Assessment – June 15, 2025:
The Israel-Iran conflict has ruptured into a sustained, bilateral campaign of high-intensity strikes—marking the collapse of decades-long red-line deterrence. Operation Rising Lion, launched by Israel on June 12, was not just preemptive—it was regime-defiant, decapitating Iran’s military leadership (Salami, Bagheri) and hitting hardened nuclear sites (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan). It crossed the threshold from covert sabotage to open war. Iran’s retaliation—waves of ballistic missiles and Shahed drones slamming into Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Jerusalem—has now extended into its fourth day, with both sides vowing further escalation.
What’s new: Iran’s response has shifted from symbolic to strategic—targeting Israel’s energy and logistical infrastructure (e.g., Haifa’s petrochemical facilities), while avoiding mass civilian casualties. This aligns with Tehran’s asymmetric doctrine: induce long-term attrition without inviting total war. Israel, meanwhile, appears to be preparing follow-up waves aimed at IRGC C2 nodes and regional proxy networks—likely via air and cyber strikes in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Notably, Hezbollah has so far restrained its hand, likely under Iranian directive to preserve escalation symmetry for now.
Steering Control: Both states are actively bypassing U.S. mediation—emboldened by Trump’s fragmented diplomatic apparatus and weakened regional deterrence architecture.
Power Dynamics: This is no longer a proxy battle; it is state-on-state asymmetric warfare, with full regional implications.
Who Benefits: Hardline factions in both regimes, seeking to consolidate domestic control under wartime legitimacy.
Who Loses: Civilian populations, regional trade corridors, and the credibility of Western diplomatic pressure—all marginalized.
Oscillation Lens: This war mirrors the 2006 Lebanon War and 1980s tanker conflicts—confined enough to avoid superpower intervention, yet deep enough to redraw strategic boundaries. Expect waves of fire, followed by rounds of talks—but not before a recalibrated regional order emerges.
If the next escalation includes cyber-targets, regional proxies, or U.S. assets (even inadvertently), we may tip into a broader Middle East war.
“The land does not forget its blood. It drinks it slowly, storing it like memory.”
— Mahmoud Darwish, Unfortunately, It Was Paradise (Palestine)
Welcome to the Middle East, where everything changes, yet nothing does.
ME-100, Chief of Middle East
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