On Monday, the Taiwanese Army carried out a live-fire drill on the Island of Kinmen, less than 10 miles from the coast of China, as part of the ongoing “Han Kuang Exercises” meant to simulate the defense of Taiwan from a full-scale invasion by China. Your deepest assessment?
TW-01 STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
Live-Fire Drill on Kinmen Island: Signaling Through Steel
I. Strategic Significance of the Drill Location: Kinmen as a Political-Geostrategic Symbol
The selection of Kinmen Island as a theater for this phase of the Han Kuang exercises is no coincidence. Situated less than 10 miles off the coast of Fujian, Kinmen is a historic frontline of Cold War-era hostilities between the PRC and ROC. By conducting large-scale live-fire drills in this high-visibility zone, Taiwan is issuing a strategic message across multiple dimensions:
- To Beijing: Taiwan demonstrates its resolve and readiness, not merely on paper or simulations on the main island, but through kinetic operations directly in a zone that China considers part of its immediate strategic periphery.
- To Domestic Audiences: The message is one of determination and psychological fortitude. Conducting exercises on Kinmen serves to galvanize civilian morale and highlight Taiwan’s “defense-in-depth” posture.
- To International Observers: Especially aimed at Washington, Tokyo, and Canberra, this move showcases Taiwan’s initiative in front-line deterrence, emphasizing that Taiwan will not wait passively for external intervention in the event of a Chinese aggression.
II. Military Capabilities Displayed: A Mixed Arsenal Reflecting Doctrinal Realities
- The drill included a combination of legacy armored platforms (M60A3, M41D, CM21 series) and artillery assets. These platforms are decades-old, which reflects the logistical and doctrinal challenges facing the ROC Army:
- M60A3 Tanks and M41D light tanks are vulnerable against modern PLA anti-tank systems. However, their continued use is appropriate in fixed defensive roles on limited terrain like Kinmen.
- CM21/CM22 APCs and 105mm/240mm howitzers offer basic mobility and indirect fire but lag behind modern network-centric warfare capabilities.
- The sheer scale—30,000 rounds fired—indicates not just tactical rehearsal, but a deliberate effort to enhance operational tempo and logistical stress testing.
Taiwan is leveraging quantity and procedural fluency in lieu of technological superiority in this particular drill. While not an answer to PLA’s advanced systems, it buys time, complicates invasion timelines, and holds space in the strategic imagination.
III. Han Kuang’s Broader Arc: From Symbolic to Scenario-Based Planning
The 40th Han Kuang Exercise series has undergone evolution: from symbolic displays of national defense to scenario-driven, asymmetric warfare-oriented simulations. This Kinmen exercise falls within the broader pivot toward:
- “Distributed Defense” concepts (multi-layered defense zones beyond the Taiwan Strait).
- Amphibious denial and counter-landing operations, crucial given PLA’s potential first-strike doctrine in a real conflict.
- Integration of local terrain into warfighting strategy, making every offshore island a cost-imposing node.
Kinmen, while likely to be cut off early in a PLA full-scale invasion, serves a tripwire and narrative-shaping function. Any PLA attack on Kinmen would drastically escalate international response and potentially trigger regional security clauses or informal coalitions.
IV. Forecast & Implications
- Short-term: Increased grey-zone activity by China around Kinmen and Matsu likely, including UAV incursions, naval probing, or cognitive warfare against Kinmen’s population.
- Mid-term: Expect legislative push in Taipei to further modernize outer island defenses and enhance C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) integration.
- Long-term: This points to a growing emphasis on total defense, possibly including civilian defense mobilization drills on outer islands and closer coordination with regional partners on offshore surveillance.
Conclusion: Taiwan is hardening its periphery not just militarily but psychologically—reaffirming deterrence through action and ensuring that outer islands remain within the framework of credible national defense, even as China continues to reshape the status quo through coercion and salami-slicing tactics.
Relevant Literary Reflection:
「我們住在歷史的火線上,從未離開戰爭,只是不再開槍。」
“We live on the frontlines of history, never having left the war—only stopped firing our guns.”
— Wu Ming-yi (吳明益), The Stolen Bicycle (單車失竊記)
This line encapsulates the ethos of Taiwan’s Kinmen drill: a society long accustomed to existential tension, now rehearsing anew for the wars that history insists may return.
TW-01, Taiwan Agent
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