At the Very Beginning of Ukraine Crisis 2.0
The attitude of Germany and France was defined as blurred by the U.S., the U.K., and many other European allies, together with NATO. Russian aggression near and inside the borders of Ukraine was almost taken for granted throughout the Berlin and Paris corridors. This raised several questions in my mind:
Questions
- Why this calm? Is it as simple as connecting the blurred behavior to energy dependency?
- What about the potential shaking of European security from the East? Are the possible costs of supporting Ukraine being shifted elsewhere?
- Are these the first steps of long-term strategic decisions taken deeply behind the scenes?
- Are isolated nation-states returning to the stage?
- Darker times ahead?
- World War II?
- World War I?
- Middle Ages?
- Adam and Eve and that dangerous tree?
- Hunter-gatherer Sapiens?
- Lonely Dinosaurs?
- Big Bang?
- No Time, No Space?
Or:
- Is it just a very simple “Maneuvering Act” while other players in the game appear interestingly solicitous?
Possible Calculations
Germany and France may consider the following scenarios:
Scenario 1
The Anglo-American support for Ukraine did not make a significant difference in 2014 and will not in 2022 either. So, calm down and observe the level of support. The capacity—or lack thereof—to change the situation on the ground is definitive.
Scenario 2
2014 is not 2022. Structural changes may emerge on the strategic map. Prevention is vital because this time the stakes are existential. Again, calm down and observe the level of support. The capacity—or lack thereof—to change the situation on the ground is definitive.
Scenario 3
The cost of sharing the responsibility of “saving Europe” is compounded by the rising cost of energy prices. Losing plus losing. The less we align with the Anglo-American push in Ukraine, the less we deteriorate our relations with Russia. Let us show Russia we have no intention of escalating the crisis in Ukraine, even if we have existential responsibilities within NATO and the EU.
Scenario 4
Anglo-American decisiveness could impose unprecedented costs and responsibilities on us in the medium and long term. This could erode our power and damage trust-building elements in transatlantic relations. Let us show America we have serious doubts and questions. Our responsibilities in Africa, East Asia, the Middle East, and Europe force us to bear more than we calculated. Could you support us economically during these challenging COVID times, please? Let us talk.
Scenario X
This is just an artificial escalation to sell more weapons and arms worldwide. It’s all for the sake of companies. Man, believe me, the “5 Big Families” rule the whole world, and they are very, very bad people.
But no—this is not true.
Euro-Atlantic Tension and Two Cards
It is becoming increasingly evident that the international agenda faces a new phase of Euro-Atlantic tension.
Big Questions:
- Does Russia directly or indirectly influence the behavior of Germany and France using geoeconomic weapons?
- Or the opposite: Do Germany and France influence Russian behavior toward Ukraine behind the scenes?
- Or is there no determination at all, but rather a convergence and compatibility of interests over Ukraine?
Scenario 6
If there is a warmonger Anglo-American alliance forcing Germany and France to bear the cost through nation-states, the EU, and NATO, can France and Germany prevent further Russian intervention? If such a silent scenario exists, we could expect to see the same problems and behavioral patterns in every Eastern European crisis in the future.
If Russia perceives the silent tension among Euro-Atlantic partners, it wouldn’t hesitate to further invade Ukraine. Conjunctural reality would enable Russia to enlarge its sphere of influence. The rest is a calculation of costs.
Yet, France and Germany appear to be playing two cards:
- “We must act with our NATO allies; Russia should know it will face heavy costs.”
- “No guns to Ukraine… some bans to Ukraine…”
Having played these two cards for weeks, it seems Germany and France cannot foresee any apparent gains. From the outset, it has been difficult to achieve leverage. In reality, Russia’s decisions define the conditions under which Germany and France’s capacity for sovereign behavior in the global power struggle is tested.
Nevertheless, any reckless behavior by Russia could cause sudden behavioral shifts in Europe. In that case, we might witness Germany and France returning to the Anglo-American decision-making family.
Germany and France are not reluctant, cautious, or coy, in fact. This is merely a maneuvering policy aimed at gaining leverage with the Anglo-American side while striving to avoid worsening relations with Russia. If my interpretation is wishful thinking or over-optimistic, we must all prepare to discuss Europe’s institutional and military future.
Nevertheless, the soft approach of Germany and France is likely to harden in the near future, and this “likelihood” will be determined by Russia’s risk-taking capabilities.
Greetings and Love,
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı
25/01/2022 – Istanbul