Do “Geopolitical Oppression” or “Threat Perception” Lead to Hard Moves in Times of Economic Contraction?
Türkiye
- Perception: Geopolitically oppressed day by day. (Syria, Greece, Aegean, Black Sea, Caucasus, Eastern Mediterranean, and North Africa)1.1 – Increasingly Complex Regionalization or Regional Alliance Building. (Limited and recovering economies searching for new markets + International sanctions)1.2 – Karabakh, Libya, Idlib, a warming Aegean, Black Sea with potential ambiguity, and forced exclusion from Eastern Mediterranean geoeconomics or playing at the lowest level.1.3 – Most of these issues are deeply connected with Russia, the new aggressor in the region with a relatively oppressed economy.
- Economic Contraction can either discourage or encourage hard moves depending on the situation. Overall, a delay in hard actions is likely. Abrasive inflation, devaluation, current deficit, and a serious decline in growth.2.1 – Any small regional opportunity would be used as leverage.2.1.1 – This means hard bargains in each competition.
- Potential Internal Unrest: Migrants/Refugees and Growing Mafia (More than 4 million Syrians, Afghans + Mafia Wars)3.1 – Both of these issues have already become major factors in the upcoming election.3.2 – No clear future projection for these blurring problems in the short to medium term.3.3 – The growing Mafia problem is linked to eco-political instability and judicial vulnerability.
- Unemployment is Rising Dramatically: The educated population is increasingly trending toward emigration, creating an extremely risky multiplier effect for the first three points.
What Does MAZ Consultancy Predict for Türkiye?
Limited but decisive hard moves (including in the Aegean), as has been the case since the 1970s.
As long as Türkiye does not switch to a ‘war economy’, it is highly likely that she will play ‘one step back and one step forward’ to maintain economic viability. The cost of power projection remains limiting.
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı
July 16, 2022