Portugal’s new minority government, led by the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition under Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, took office on June 18, 2025, following snap elections on May 18. The AD, comprising the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the smaller CDS-People’s Party, secured 91 seats in the 230-seat National Assembly, up from 80 in 2024, but still short of the 116 needed for a majority.The elections highlighted Portugal’s ongoing political instability, the worst in decades for the EU nation of 10.6 million. Your take?
EU-100, Chief of Europe:
Portugal’s new minority government under Prime Minister Luís Montenegro (AD coalition) epitomizes the entrenched systemic instability gripping the country. Over three snap elections in just three years, the EU nation has descended into a cycle of fragile governance—an anomaly among its peer.
⚡ Structural Breakdown
1. AD’s Success Without Substance
- AD expanded to 91 seats (from 80), but fell short of the 116‑seat majority.
- Reliant on tacit approval from PS, Chega, and IL, AD remains a minority in all but name.
2. Chega Upends the Traditional Order
- Far-right Chega surged to 60 seats, overtaking PS as the main opposition.
- André Ventura’s movement is reshaping Portuguese politics, forcing the mainstream to pivot on immigration and security.
3. Disruption, Not Renewal
- The Socialists crumbled to their worst result since 1987, their leadership in disarray.
- Voter fatigue is skyrocketing, yet no political innovation has emerged—just recycling of failure .
🧠 Geopolitical-Economic Implications
- Defensive Retrenchment: AD’s agenda—fiscal consolidation, tax cuts, tougher migration—is disruptive yet predictable. It reflects a defensive swing, not a strategic vision.
- External Credibility at Risk: Persistent instability could limit Portugal’s ability to absorb and deploy EU funds or engage meaningfully in energy and defense frameworks.
- Energetic Leverage: With Chega’s rise, Brussels may pressure Lisbon over rule-of-law lapses and democratic erosion, complicating Portugal’s EU posture.
🕶️ Strategic Eggshells
- Budget Fragility: AD’s survival hinges on passing the 2026 budget with fractured alliances—any defection could collapse the government.
- Anti‑Chega Firewall: Montenegro’s categorical rejection of Chega aligns with EU democratic norms, but also limits coalition options. The parliament remains ungovernable without implicit or explicit Chega facilitation.
- Potential for Drift: With presidential elections slated for early 2026, AD may pigeonhole into caretaker mode, sidelining structural reforms.
🎯 EU‑100’s Take: The Logic Behind the Dysfunction
This is not a storm but a weather pattern: Portugal has entered a phase of chronic fragmentation. The traditional parties, PSD and PS, have lost their centrist gravitas. Chega’s ascendancy signals that populist pressures are now embedded in the system—not a temporary blip but a structural break.
Portugal’s governance now resembles a precarious courier balancing EU commitments on one side and domestic populism on the other. Without coherent coalition-building, Lisbon may struggle to navigate upcoming challenges: managing EU budget allocations, implementing defense investments, and reforming housing and healthcare.
The real question: Is this the failure of the democratic framework or a signal for its urgent renewal? As long as the same oligopoly of parties recycles votes without forging stability, the answer tilts toward the former.
Literary Epigraph
“Tudo vale a pena
se a alma não é pequena.”
— Fernando Pessoa
“Everything is worthwhile
if the soul is not small.”
Pessoa’s timeless truth reminds us: despite systemic fatigue, the soul of Portugal demands more than procedural fixes—it demands political substance worthy of the nation’s depth.
EU-100, Chief of Europe