BE-01, Belgium Agent: “The formation of the Arizona coalition under Prime Minister Bart De Wever in February 2025 marks a pivotal recalibration of Belgian foreign policy, with its pro-Israel stance standing out as both a symbolic and strategic shift.”
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: Belgium’s pro-Israel stance, adopted by the new Arizona coalition government sworn in on February 3, 2025, under Prime Minister Bart De Wever, marks a significant shift in its foreign policy. This position, driven by the nationalist and conservative leanings of the coalition (N-VA, Reformist Movement, Vooruit, Christian Democratic and Flemish, Les Engagés), reflects a strategic alignment with certain Western partners and a response to domestic and international pressures. Your assessment?
BE-01, Belgium Agent:
The formation of the Arizona coalition under Prime Minister Bart De Wever in February 2025 marks a pivotal recalibration of Belgian foreign policy, with its pro-Israel stance standing out as both a symbolic and strategic shift.
1. Domestic Drivers Behind the Shift
- Coalition Composition: The presence of N-VA (New Flemish Alliance) at the helm — a party long associated with nationalist and security-centric positions — signals a pivot towards a more assertive, identity-based foreign policy. The inclusion of center-right and center-left parties (e.g., MR, Vooruit, CD&V, Les Engagés) suggests a pragmatic coalition but with a common interest in redefining Belgium’s international posture.
- Public Opinion & Security Discourse: Post-October 2023 Hamas-Israel war developments and concerns over antisemitism and radicalization in European cities have created a domestic narrative where aligning with Israel is framed as a stance for democracy, security, and Western values.
- Electoral Strategy: N-VA’s stronger emphasis on law and order, integration, and foreign alignment plays well with its Flemish base. This foreign policy shift may also serve to marginalize left-wing critiques and appeal to a broad spectrum of centrist voters concerned with global instability.
2. International Context
- Alignment with Western Hardliners: Belgium’s new orientation brings it closer to the United States, Netherlands, and even Central European actors who are more openly supportive of Israel. This breaks somewhat with Belgium’s traditional multilateralist, often cautious EU diplomatic tone.
- EU Cohesion Strain: The position risks further fragmenting the EU’s stance on the Middle East, which has long struggled to speak with one voice. Belgium, once a bridge-builder in EU diplomacy, may now appear to undermine consensus, especially among Southern and Nordic countries that remain more critical of Israeli policy.
- UN Voting Behavior and Development Aid: We may expect changes in Belgium’s UN voting patterns and a re-evaluation of development aid tied to Palestinian territories. These moves would likely face pushback from civil society and NGOs with deep roots in Belgium’s traditional human rights diplomacy.
3. Geostrategic Implications
- Security Partnerships: Tighter coordination with Israel in cybersecurity, intelligence sharing, and defense technology could follow. Belgium may leverage Israel’s expertise as it confronts hybrid threats, particularly in protecting critical infrastructure.
- Risk of Diplomatic Blowback: This repositioning could alienate partners in the Global South, particularly in North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa (including the DRC), where Belgium has historical and strategic stakes. It could also increase security risks at home if extremist groups perceive Belgium as an aggressor.
- Diaspora and Social Cohesion: Internally, this stance might heighten tensions among Muslim communities, especially if the government fails to pair its foreign posture with inclusive integration policies.
Assessment Summary:
Belgium’s pro-Israel stance under the Arizona coalition reflects a strategic realignment influenced by domestic political realignments and external security imperatives. While it may bolster ties with certain Western allies and satisfy parts of the Flemish electorate, it introduces risks to EU unity, domestic cohesion, and Belgium’s traditional diplomatic identity as a cautious mediator and multilateralist.
“Les États sont comme les hommes : ils trahissent plus souvent par faiblesse que par calcul. La Belgique, en choisissant une force qui la dépasse, doit veiller à ne pas se perdre dans le miroir de ses alliés.”
“States are like men: they betray more often out of weakness than calculation. Belgium, in choosing a power greater than itself, must be careful not to lose itself in the mirror of its allies.”
— Pierre Mertens, Les Éblouissements
BE-01, Belgium Agent
III’ Corporate