Free Recommendations to the Ruling
An asymmetric and overly fragmented view of Turkish political dynamics should be balanced to ensure fair democratic representation. MAZ Corporate is now observing emerging vulnerabilities in the last days of Erdogan and his party, AKP.
Foremost, President Erdogan has been a classical agitator and a master manager of Turkish politics for 20 years. While his political expertise is a topic for another day, MAZ Corporate highlights some of his key techniques and how they relate to today’s socio-political atmosphere, including the new vulnerabilities of the AKP.
Escalation of Mood Disorder
MAZ Corporate proudly introduces this term to define one of Erdogan’s hallmark techniques. What does this mean? Erdogan has consistently played on the Turkish people’s emotions by exploiting three sensitive points: fear, weakness, and memory, regardless of their political affiliation. Both his supporters and the opposition have been subjected to this psycho-political game.
However, the COVID-19 crisis profoundly impacted the public mood, and Erdogan’s most effective technique has lost its edge. Prolonged public policies have exacerbated societal mental health challenges. Adding to this, the Kahramanmaraş earthquake—described as the century’s greatest natural disaster by Turkish authorities—has pushed the majority of Turks into depression. Turkish society is now more angry and anxious than ever.
Consequently, Erdogan’s signature “escalation of mood disorder” approach has grown ineffective.
Recommendation 1: Calm Down
In the two months leading up to the election, Erdogan must remain composed. Avoid inflaming tensions. Turkish society is in a psychologically fragile state, and heightened agitation will only backfire. This time, the path forward is clear: No escalation. Stay calm. Steady the ship.
Additional Populist Strategies
Leadership Argument
Engaging with Kılıçdaroğlu (Bay Kemal) has long been one of Erdogan’s easiest tactics. Many within the opposition believe that Erdogan’s victories are less about his strengths and more about Kılıçdaroğlu’s perceived lack of charisma. There’s some truth to this.
Continue mocking Kılıçdaroğlu to shrink his stature in voters’ minds. However, remember that this time, people are less focused on leadership narratives and more on economic realities. Erdogan’s usual “He-Man vs. Gandhian Kılıçdaroğlu” dialectic might not resonate this time. Kılıçdaroğlu may finally have the opportunity to prevail.
Focus on Kılıçdaroğlu directly and reduce attention on the larger opposition bloc. For example, frame the campaign as:
“Bring them all together—Ekrem, Mansur, Demirtaş, even Apo—and I will still face them alone. Let’s fight!”
(Hepiniz birleşerek gelin, Ekrem’i de al, Mansur’u da al, Demirtaş’ı da al, Apo’yu da al, ben tek geliyorum!)
This framing will bolster Erdogan’s psychological dominance among less-educated voters.
Stage Presence
Avoid over-agitated poetry or making AKP supporters cry. Many are already struggling due to the rising cost of living. Instead, employ innovative stage tactics:
Display a sad image of Kılıçdaroğlu on a big screen and energize the crowd by shouting:
“I am coooming! I am coooming! I am coooming, Kemaaaal!”
(Geliyoruuum! Geliyoruuum! Geliyoruuum, Kemaaaal!)
Securitize Public Mindsets
Focus heavily on national security and the threat of terrorism. Emphasize PKK’s inhuman attacks and position yourself as the sole protector of the state, its people, and even the dream of the Ottoman Empire. Reassure voters that only you and Bahçeli can save the nation.
Highlight achievements in the defense industry and promote your groom’s (Berat Albayrak’s) accomplishments as examples of resilience.
Target Market and Housing Costs
Acknowledge the public’s economic pain by addressing unethical profiteering in the housing and food markets. Promise to punish landlords and market owners who exploit hyperinflation. Reassure voters that prices will return to 2019 levels—a loaf of bread for 1 Turkish Lira and affordable rents.
While this may seem unrealistic, there are still voters who will buy into the promise. Use their pain points strategically to consolidate your base.
Crisis of Living Costs
The skyrocketing cost of living has become the opposition’s strongest weapon. If left unchecked, it could burn Erdogan’s campaign to the ground. It’s crucial to tackle this issue head-on with a mix of populist promises and policy adjustments to regain voter confidence.
By following these recommendations, Erdogan can adapt to the shifting political landscape and potentially mitigate the vulnerabilities now threatening the AKP.
- Pahalılaşmanın Hesabı Sorulacak! (We will account for the prices!!!) Eeeeeeeeey Market Sahipleri,
- Bunun Bedelini Ödersiniz! (Heeey Market Owners, You will pay the price!)
- Eeeeeeeeeeeeey Ev Sahipleri, Bu devran böyle dönmeez! Heeeey Landlords, The time won’t keep turning like this!
- Eeeeeeeeeey Kılıçdaroğlu, Bu ülkeyi ne hale getirdin? (Heeeeeeey Kılıçdaroğlu, what have you done to this country?)
Never Talk About the Illegal Reference System “TORPİL” in the Bureaucracy. Because hundreds of thousands of successful people who have already passed the government exams with clean track security reports but couldn’t get recruited because they don’t have “illegal papers,” “referees,” or “very important people” to call to win in the latest part of the exams “interviews,” would get agitated again and again. People who don’t love you but their country will work against you till the end of time if you give a speech on TORPİL. Therefore, Be Silent on this topic to reduce the hatred of these special voters.
Keep using Religious Arguments: It might be useful during an economic crisis to use trust-giving phrases through the outer components of your campaign.
Mesih Geliyooor… (Messiaaaah is comiiiiing… He will pay the reeeeents…)
Dünyanın Sonu Geliyoooor… 2023 sooooon… (The world has only 1 month leeeft… End of Tiiiiime Baaby! 2023 is finishing yeaaaaaarr…)
Cinler Bay Kemali Ele Geçirmiiş… (The Djinns must have captured Mr. KEMAL)
Yau Bay Kemal Senin Bu Halin Ne Yau? (Ouww Kemal, What’s your this state of being?)
Savunma Sanayimizi Melekler destekliyoooor, Melekleeeeeeer!! (Our Defence Industry is supported by the Angeeeeeels… Angels!!)
This “angel and jinn” argument seems more useful in underdeveloped and developing countries, according to MAZ Corporate Global Observation. This kind of balanced or not exaggerated phrase is more interesting than the USA’s UFO Agenda. Underdeveloped or developing societies generally prefer narratives about anachronic topics, pious dreams, and expectations rather than UFOs and scientific stories.
Tell “Göklerden gelen bir karar vardıııır…” (“There is a decision from skyeeeeeey.”) (A Godly Decision) to create a mystery that you think 80 million people are eagerly waiting for… and wait for the latest decision of God on May 14, 2023.
MAZ Corporate Consulting Services
Muhammet Ali Zurnaci
March 15, 2023, Istanbul