On June 10, 2025, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled the EU’s 18th sanctions package against Russia, targeting its energy and financial sectors to pressure Moscow to end its war in Ukraine. Ursula von der Leyen: New EU sanctions will target Nord Stream and lower oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel, ban the use of Russian energy infrastructure. Package also expands the blacklist to include more Russian banks and vessels from the shadow fleet. Sanctions against Russia’s nuclear sector were left out of the 18th package. Your assessment?
EU-100, Chief of Europe:
EU-100 Assessment – June 11, 2025
Subject: 18th EU Sanctions Package Against Russia – Form Over Function
The EU’s 18th sanctions package against Russia, unveiled by Ursula von der Leyen, represents more political choreography than strategic leverage. With the war in Ukraine now in its third year, the core logic of sanctions fatigue has set in—and Brussels knows it. This latest round is a recalibration of pressure optics rather than a fundamental escalation.
1. Targeting Nord Stream and Energy Infrastructure:
The symbolic inclusion of Nord Stream—already defunct after sabotage—serves more as a legal codification of a geopolitical reality than a practical blow to Russia. The ban on using Russian energy infrastructure is largely performative; the EU has already diversified away from Russian gas through LNG imports, particularly from the U.S. and Qatar. This move primarily targets future risk, not current leverage.
2. Lowering the Oil Price Cap ($60 → $45):
Lowering the cap to $45/b is a tactical tightening, but its efficacy depends on enforcement—where it is weakest. The shadow fleet, already sprawling across the maritime grey zone, functions precisely to evade this mechanism. Russia’s use of non-Western insurance, reflagging, and third-party brokers has rendered previous caps porous. A lower cap might increase shipping and compliance complexity, but Russia’s workaround infrastructure is already in place. This is economic theater unless G7 alignment and maritime enforcement improve dramatically.
3. Expanding the Blacklist (Banks + Vessels):
Adding more banks and shadow fleet vessels signals intent, but again, this is a saturation strategy—adding pressure through accumulation. Yet Russian banks critical to global energy transactions (e.g., Gazprombank) remain untouched, preserving loopholes under the guise of financial stability. The blacklist grows, but the systemic architecture of Russian resource exports remains functionally operational.
4. Exclusion of the Nuclear Sector:
That the nuclear sector remains excluded reveals where the EU still kneels to dependency. Countries like Hungary and Slovakia rely on Russian nuclear technology and fuel (Rosatom). Brussels chose not to fracture internal unity or expose European energy vulnerabilities. This omission is not an oversight; it’s strategic self-preservation.
Bottom Line:
This 18th sanctions package is more about narrative maintenance than functional escalation.
Von der Leyen seeks to maintain the appearance of momentum, especially as support fatigue grows across Europe and divisions deepen over long-term strategy. The most critical sectors—nuclear and essential banking channels—remain protected due to intra-EU dependencies and the global system’s tolerance for Russian hydrocarbons via non-Western routes.
While the EU frames these measures as acts of strategic pressure, the reality is that Europe’s economic entanglement with Russia has merely re-routed, not dissolved. Shadow fleets, backdoor banking, and dual-dependency (particularly in energy and rare materials) keep the system in balance—albeit a distorted one.
The sanctions policy has entered a phase of diminishing returns. Europe is signaling resolve but avoiding self-damage. The performance continues, but the strategic equation remains stubbornly intact.
Steering Detection:
The media coverage frames this package as a sign of “unwavering EU resolve.” But the real function is internal—to reassure divided publics and member states that the Commission is still “doing something”. The sanctions’ actual strategic utility is increasingly secondary to their political symbolism.
“War is not an adventure. It is a disease. It is like typhus.”
— Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, France
EU-100, Chief of Europe
Three Corporate | Just Truth