The Dominoes and the Day Goes By
The costs of the Ukraine crisis, compounded by the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, continue to cause ripples not only in the destabilized region but across the globe. The intricate relationship between defense budgets and inflation creates an uncertain balance for nearly every country in the medium and long term. Let me pose a few key questions:
Will everyone take their pain out on someone else?
All of Europe, particularly Germany, is still calculating the price to be paid. Naturally, each actor is beginning to assess who might bear the burden of the costs they are likely to face. Could the potential vulnerabilities in Germany’s economy affect its relations not only with Russia but also with Turkey and other middle powers? And how might shifts in Europe’s foreign trade volume influence the (hard) behavioral environment in the Near East?
What new alliances will the payoff strategy trigger?
If Germany fails to offer significant support to Ukraine, will it face unexpected consequences—both hard and soft, domestic and international? Could the U.S., NATO, or the EU attempt to shift some of the economic and political pressures from the coronavirus and Ukraine crises directly onto Turkey—or indirectly through the ongoing tensions with Greece?
Could Turkey offset its long-standing economic losses with potential military gains in the Aegean?
The Greek-Turkish tension, a reflection of the complex tripartite conflict of interests between Turkey, the U.S., and NATO/EU, highlights the broader strategic stakes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean regions. The Cyprus issue, serving as a cornerstone of this conflict, continues to send signals across these waters.
Will the end of this tension lead Turkey to redefine its security borders?
Could Turkey extend its security frontiers outward, further into the Aegean or Eastern Mediterranean? Can the Near East and Eastern Europe axis withstand yet another strategic crisis?
I believe the answer is:
Yes.
Muhammet Ali Zurnaci
MAZ Articles
Trial Release
October 11, 2022