I asked OC-100, III’ Corporate Oceania Chief, about the Cook Islands:
The Cook Islands, a small island nation, signed a five-year agreement with China in late February 2025 for mineral exploration, research and port/ship development. This move came despite concerns from New Zealand and coincided with Chinese military exercises in the region. What is your risk assessment and future scenarios?
I’m taking notes on the development of my chief’s risk assessment criteria and what can be done to increase the capacity for future scenario building.
Even as it is, it’s quite adequate.
Don’t you think so?
– Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: The Cook Islands, a small island nation, signed a five-year agreement with China in late February 2025 for minerals exploration, research, and port/ship development. This move came despite concerns from New Zealand and coincided with Chinese military drills in the region. What is your risk assessment and future scenarios?
– OC-100, Oceania Chief: The Cook Islands’ recent five-year agreement with China encompasses seabed mineral exploration, maritime research, and port development. This move has raised concerns among regional stakeholders, notably New Zealand, due to the potential geopolitical and security implications.
Risk Assessment
- Geopolitical Realignment: The agreement signifies a deepening of ties between the Cook Islands and China, potentially altering traditional alliances in the Pacific. New Zealand, which shares a free association agreement with the Cook Islands, expressed concerns over the lack of prior consultation, viewing it as a deviation from established protocols. en.wikipedia.org
- Strategic Maritime Infrastructure: While the agreement focuses on economic and infrastructural development, the inclusion of port and ship development raises questions about possible dual-use facilities that could serve both civilian and military purposes. This ambiguity contributes to regional apprehension regarding China’s long-term strategic intentions. theguardian.com
- Regional Security Dynamics: The timing of the agreement coincides with China’s increased military activities in the Pacific, including live-fire drills near Australia and Taiwan. Such maneuvers have heightened tensions and underscored concerns about China’s expanding military footprint in the region.
Future Scenarios
- Enhanced Chinese Influence: The Cook Islands may experience increased economic investment from China, leading to improved infrastructure and development. However, this could also result in greater political influence from Beijing, potentially affecting the nation’s foreign policy decisions.
- Strained Relations with Traditional Allies: The Cook Islands’ pivot towards China might strain its relationships with traditional allies like New Zealand and Australia. This could lead to reduced support or cooperation from these nations, impacting areas such as defense, aid, and diplomatic backing.
- Regional Security Reconfigurations: Should China’s involvement in the Cook Islands extend to strategic military uses, it could prompt a recalibration of defense strategies among Pacific nations. This may lead to increased military presence from other powers, heightened surveillance, and a potential arms buildup in the region.
In conclusion, while the Cook Islands’ agreement with China offers avenues for economic development, it also introduces complexities in regional geopolitics and security. The situation warrants close monitoring to balance national interests with regional stability.
”The sea is history.” — Derek Walcott
OC-100, Oceania Chief
III’ Corporate