Muhammet Ali Zurnacı/Istanbul
The pulse of a power shift throughout Eastern Europe is now unmistakable. The Russian invasion of Ukraine 2.0 makes this reality clearer than ever. We are transitioning from a point where Russia could not invade any European nation to a point where it can reach the capital of Ukraine. This is no longer about delusions but realizations on the ground. It is not a matter of defining areas on the map as part of a “Russian Sphere of Influence,” but rather recognizing them as “Russian-Controlled Areas.”
As analysts, we often exaggerate expectations based on assumptions. Ukraine is neither a NATO member nor part of the EU. The United States, aside from providing material support, has never committed to direct involvement in Ukraine. Germany and France hesitated to send anti-tank missiles until explosions were heard in Kyiv. Despite the alarmism of the media, the response has amounted to little more than Stingers, Javelins, and anti-war street protests. Sanctions on Russia appear to have been factored into Putin’s calculations, serving to legitimize his growing aggression rather than deter it.
Notable NATO actions regarding its eastern flank have failed to create behavioral changes in the escalating conflict in Ukraine. U.S. tactical military positioning and resource mobilization for the crisis have not prevented Russian advances. President Zelensky’s calls, despite their poignant and tragic narratives, have largely gone unanswered. Eastern European NATO members are focused on their own perceived threats, and while the deteriorating humanitarian crisis has been acknowledged as a priority, it has been overshadowed by tactical, short-term measures.
NATO and its Western allies understand that alarmism, sanctions, narratives, slogans, peace pleas, confiscating oligarchs’ yachts, SWIFT bans, expressions of anger, limited material support, and information warfare are insufficient to prevent an aggressive actor. These efforts ultimately amount to saying, “We did our best. Poor Ukraine.” Russia, by contrast, is fully aware that it cannot win a war through global information campaigns or limited sanctions, yet it is steadily gaining strategic depth. Without illusions or delusions, it is taking control of real territory on the map.
The pulse of Russia’s strategic ambitions is beating—loud and clear.
MAZ Articles
Trial Release
March 5, 2022