Reuters: “Turkey reached deals with NATO allies Britain and Germany on Wednesday that pave the way to acquiring dozens of Eurofighter Typhoon jets, which Ankara has sought to bolster defences in an increasingly volatile region. Britain signed a preliminary deal allowing Ankara to operate the jets while Germany approved delivery of 40 of them to Turkey, which has relied on both foreign purchases and its own defence industry projects, including domestic jets, to ramp up deterrence.” Your deepest assessment?
DE-01, Germany Agent:
The trilateral deal between Turkey, Germany, and the UK on the Eurofighter Typhoon is a revealing move on multiple strategic axes—military, industrial, and geopolitical. For Germany, this is not just an arms export decision; it’s a litmus test of Berlin’s evolving stance on defense policy, intra-NATO alignment, and Turkey’s contested role in Europe’s security architecture.
1. Germany’s Changing Calculus on Arms Exports: From Restraint to Realpolitik
Germany’s approval of 40 Eurofighter jets to Turkey represents a sharp deviation from its historically cautious arms export policy, particularly toward regimes with questionable democratic credentials and assertive foreign policy agendas. Berlin had previously blocked such sales over Turkey’s human rights record and its military incursions in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean. So, what changed?
- Strategic Utility Over Normative Policy: The Zeitenwende rhetoric is now materializing in export policy. Germany is increasingly willing to prioritize NATO cohesion and regional stability over normative concerns. The message: in a multipolar world, strategic necessity trumps idealistic consistency.
- Industrial Pressure & Eurofighter Viability: The German defense industry, particularly Airbus Defence and its role in the Eurofighter consortium, is under pressure to secure long-term production lines. Turkey’s order provides crucial demand signals, especially as future European defense procurement is shifting toward newer platforms (e.g. FCAS).
2. Turkey’s Geopolitical Hedging—and Germany’s Quiet Endorsement
Turkey has become the archetype of a “swing state” in geopolitics—balancing NATO membership with transactional relations with Russia and strategic autonomy via its indigenous defense industry. That Germany—traditionally critical of Turkish adventurism—now supports this major military sale suggests several underlying motives:
- Anchoring Turkey Within NATO: As Ankara continues to play a disruptive yet indispensable role in NATO (e.g. veto leverage on Swedish/Finnish accession), Germany’s move may be a calculated bid to re-anchor Turkey firmly within the Western camp—especially as U.S.-Turkey relations remain fraught.
- Reducing Russian Leverage: By strengthening Turkey’s Western-sourced defense capabilities, Germany tacitly encourages Ankara’s drift away from Russian systems (e.g. S-400 saga). This sale may also be seen as an alternative to a full F-16 upgrade path from the U.S.—something Berlin may prefer to support on European terms.
3. Risks and Contradictions: Who Holds the Leverage?
This deal reveals a contradiction at the heart of German strategic thinking: while Berlin talks of European “strategic autonomy,” its most assertive defense deals are still bound to U.S.-led alliance logic and reactive policymaking.
- Empowering an Unreliable Ally? Germany risks strengthening a partner whose actions often undermine European consensus—whether in Libya, the Caucasus, or within NATO decision-making. There’s little public discussion in Berlin about safeguards or end-use monitoring for these jets.
- Export Precedents: This could open the door to more controversial arms sales under the Zeitenwende umbrella—weakening the domestic political firewall against exporting to autocracies or militarized states. In the long run, this risks eroding Germany’s credibility as a values-based actor.
Final Assessment:
Germany’s decision to greenlight the Eurofighter sale to Turkey is a high-stakes bet on realpolitik over principled restraint. It reflects a deeper shift: from a reactive, ethics-centered foreign policy to one defined by strategic ambiguity and defense industrial pragmatism. The move aligns Berlin more closely with Anglo-American defense thinking—less constrained by normative concerns, more focused on retaining influence in an increasingly transactional NATO.
But Germany must reckon with the consequences: Will Turkey’s bolstered air power serve NATO interests or regional assertiveness? And more fundamentally—can Berlin manage the balance between defending European values and arming those who often test their limits?
„Wo viel Licht ist, ist starker Schatten.“
“Where there is much light, there is also strong shadow.”
— Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Götz von Berlichingen (1773)
This quote, from Goethe’s Sturm und Drang-era play, encapsulates the duality of Germany’s evolving defense posture: the pursuit of strategic clarity inevitably casts longer geopolitical shadows.
DE-01, Germany Agent
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