We spoke with III’ Corporate Turkey Agent about Turkey’s diplomatic and political moves regarding the Ukraine crisis. We explored the context of statements made as of today.
Not only did he provide highly satisfactory answers, but his ability to summarize detailed strategies with sharp foresight was truly impressive. When you read the summary, you will realize that it is far more than a simple summation.
TR-01 is intellectually realistic and visually, emotionally expressive.
Don’t you think what Atilla İlhan emphasizes holds true for both domestic and foreign policy? 🌹
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: Türkiye’s willingness to act as a security guarantor for Ukraine and its support for Ukraine’s NATO membership are based on recent statements and actions from Turkish officials, reflecting a real and evolving stance as of February 25, 2025.
TR-01, Turkey Agent: As of February 25, 2025, Türkiye has actively positioned itself as a pivotal player in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, emphasizing its role as a mediator and supporter of Ukraine’s security aspirations.
Security Guarantor Role: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has acknowledged Türkiye as a significant security guarantor for Ukraine. This recognition underscores Ankara’s commitment to facilitating peace and stability in the region. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has reiterated Türkiye’s readiness to host potential peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, building upon its previous efforts that led to the Black Sea grain export deal in 2022. Fidan emphasized Türkiye’s willingness to support any initiative leading to peace, highlighting the necessity for both parties to engage in dialogue.
Support for NATO Membership: Türkiye has expressed support for Ukraine’s bid to join NATO. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has publicly stated that Ukraine “deserves” NATO membership. However, Foreign Minister Fidan has urged a realistic approach, acknowledging the broader security concerns associated with Ukraine’s accession to the alliance. This stance reflects Türkiye’s strategic balancing act, aiming to support Ukraine’s sovereignty while considering the geopolitical implications of NATO expansion.
Strategic Implications: Türkiye’s involvement as a security guarantor and its support for Ukraine’s NATO aspirations are indicative of its broader strategy to assert influence in regional security matters. By positioning itself as a mediator, Türkiye seeks to enhance its geopolitical standing, leveraging its unique position as a NATO member with established ties to both Ukraine and Russia. This approach allows Ankara to navigate complex international dynamics, aiming to foster stability while advancing its national interests.
“Dünyada her şey için, medeniyet için, hayat için, başarı için en gerçek yol gösterici ilimdir, fendir. İlim ve fennin dışında yol gösterici aramak gaflettir, cehalettir, doğru yoldan sapmaktır.”
“In the world, for everything, for civilization, for life, for success, the truest guide is science. Seeking a guide other than science and technology is ignorance, negligence, and deviation from the right path.”
— Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, Speech (Nutuk)
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: I want a deeper analysis with a foresight and a unique point if possible.
Türkiye’s Security Guarantor Role for Ukraine: A Calculated Balancing Act?
Türkiye’s willingness to act as a security guarantor for Ukraine and its vocal support for Ukraine’s NATO membership must be viewed through a strategic lens rather than a mere expression of solidarity. As of February 25, 2025, these statements reflect a mix of realpolitik, economic pragmatism, and Türkiye’s evolving multi-vector foreign policy. However, the critical question remains: Is Türkiye shaping security dynamics, or is it simply adapting to shifting global tides?
1. Türkiye’s Strategic Balancing Between NATO and Russia
Türkiye’s foreign policy under President Erdoğan has increasingly revolved around the concept of “strategic autonomy,” maintaining cooperative ties with Russia while fulfilling NATO commitments. The willingness to act as a security guarantor for Ukraine must be seen in the context of:
- Maintaining NATO Alignment: Supporting Ukraine’s NATO membership and offering security assurances help Türkiye solidify its standing within NATO at a time when its relations with the West have been strained over its stance on Sweden’s accession and defense procurements.
- Avoiding Full Confrontation with Russia: Despite these moves, Ankara continues to maintain critical energy and defense cooperation with Russia. Erdoğan has previously sought exemptions for Russian gas payments and collaborated with Moscow on nuclear energy projects (such as Akkuyu NPP).
- Strengthening Mediation Credentials: By positioning itself as a key diplomatic actor in potential Ukraine-Russia peace talks, Türkiye is reinforcing its role as a necessary middle power. This enhances its bargaining power not just in security but also in economic negotiations.
In essence, Türkiye’s actions are not about picking a side but about leveraging tensions to increase its geopolitical influence.
2. Security Guarantees: Symbolic or Substantive?
What does being a “security guarantor” entail? If Türkiye commits to such a role, it could take various forms:
- Diplomatic and Economic Guarantees: Facilitating negotiations, supporting Ukraine’s reconstruction, and maintaining trade and humanitarian aid channels.
- Military-Technical Cooperation: Türkiye has already supplied Ukraine with Bayraktar TB2 drones, and a deeper military-technical partnership (potentially including armored vehicles, electronic warfare systems, or even air defense cooperation) could be on the table.
- Operational or Direct Military Support? Highly unlikely. Türkiye will not directly engage in hostilities against Russia, nor will it deploy troops to Ukraine. Ankara’s calculus revolves around deterrence, not escalation.
The security guarantor role is thus largely diplomatic and economic, rather than a binding military commitment.
3. Türkiye’s Real Play: A New Power Broker in Europe?
The deeper strategic foresight here is Türkiye’s gradual transformation into an independent European security actor.
- Challenging the EU’s Security Architecture: The European security landscape has long been dominated by NATO and the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy. By positioning itself as a security guarantor for Ukraine, Türkiye is carving out a role in shaping European security beyond the EU framework.
- Leveraging the Black Sea Region: Controlling the Turkish Straits, Türkiye already plays a critical role in Black Sea security. A formal security arrangement with Ukraine would give Türkiye a more prominent voice in regional naval and defense initiatives.
- Strengthening Economic Ties with Ukraine: Post-war reconstruction in Ukraine is expected to involve billions of dollars in investment. By being a security guarantor, Türkiye ensures a seat at the table for lucrative contracts in infrastructure, energy, and logistics.
Türkiye’s strategic vision here is not just about Ukraine but about reshaping its place in the European security order on its own terms.
4. Will Türkiye’s Support for Ukraine’s NATO Membership Materialize?
Türkiye’s vocal backing for Ukraine’s NATO bid should not be taken at face value. While Erdoğan has stated that Ukraine “deserves” NATO membership, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has tempered expectations by emphasizing security risks.
Türkiye is using this stance as a bargaining chip. In exchange for its support, Türkiye could seek:
- Concessions on Defense Procurement (F-16 sales from the US, or better deals on European arms).
- Stronger Security Guarantees for Its Own Interests (Northern Syria operations, counterterrorism flexibility against the PKK).
- Economic Incentives from the EU (Revival of the Customs Union talks or visa liberalization).
Simply put, Türkiye is unlikely to push aggressively for Ukraine’s NATO membership unless it receives tangible benefits in return.
5. The Russian Response and Türkiye’s Tightrope Walk
Russia has previously warned Türkiye against deepening security ties with Ukraine. If Ankara moves too close to Kyiv, potential Russian responses could include:
- Pressure on Energy Cooperation: Russia could manipulate gas prices or slow down the Akkuyu nuclear project.
- Syria Card: Russia might allow Syrian regime forces to disrupt Turkish operations in northern Syria.
- Economic Countermeasures: Russian tourists and trade make up a significant portion of Türkiye’s economy. Restricting these could add strain to Türkiye’s struggling economy.
Thus, Türkiye’s support for Ukraine is unlikely to cross the threshold that would provoke serious Russian retaliation.
Final Take: Türkiye’s Calculated Play for Power Projection
Türkiye’s role as a security guarantor for Ukraine and its support for NATO expansion are strategic maneuvers rather than ideological commitments. The key takeaways:
- Türkiye is leveraging the Ukraine crisis to elevate its status as a key European and Black Sea security player.
- Its security guarantor role will likely be more diplomatic and economic rather than a military commitment.
- Backing Ukraine’s NATO bid serves Türkiye’s bargaining interests, not an unconditional stance.
- Türkiye will not risk a direct fallout with Russia but will continue playing both sides to maximize its gains.
The real foresight here is that Türkiye is not just supporting Ukraine—it is strategically positioning itself as an independent power broker in European security affairs, carving out a space beyond NATO’s traditional structure.
Türkiye is not choosing a side. Türkiye is choosing Türkiye.
“Bu ülke, işlerin nasıl yürüdüğünü çözen ve oyununu ona göre oynayanlarındır. Geri kalanlar sadece seyircidir.”
“This country belongs to those who understand how the game is played and act accordingly. The rest are just spectators.”— Attilâ İlhan, Aynanın İçindekiler
TR-01, Turkey Agent
III’ Corporate