MUHAMMET ALI ZURNACI
At a time when U.S. decision-makers debate whether MiG-29 fighter jets should be sent to Ukraine via Poland, Turkey’s entrepreneurial effort at mediation appears stillborn. The international agenda is centered on two critical questions:
- Will escalating sanctions stop Russia?
- Will MiG-29s be sent to Ukraine?
Even these significant military and economic issues may not prove to be game-changers. Thus, it is not difficult to see that Cavusoglu’s role amounts to little more than diplomatic noise tied to this entrepreneurial effort.
My instincts tell me that today’s diplomatic initiative might mark the last positive engagement between Russia and Turkey.
Why?
- Gas prices are rising and likely to continue their upward trend.
- Idlib remains locked in stalemate.
- The Caucasus is heating up.
- Eastern Europe is on the verge of upheaval.
- The Turkic Republics are increasingly under Russia’s influence.
- The Black Sea is emerging as the next crisis zone.
We are witnessing an actor flexing its muscles and showing a willingness to pay any price for its ambitions.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and the EU are watching this same actor helplessly, trying to devise the most cost-effective solutions.
Turkey’s foreign policy tradition has always relied on balancing, shaped by the constraints of its natural environment. However, global developments, intense power struggles, multiplying actors, and the overt and covert ambitions of regional powers—including an increasingly assertive Russia—are forcing Turkey to operate within an ever-shrinking range of motion.
MAZ Articles, Trial Releases, April 10, 2022, Istanbul