On June 1, 2025, Ukraine conducted a major drone operation, code-named “Spiderweb,” targeting four Russian military airfields: Belaya in Irkutsk, Olenya in Murmansk, Dyagilevo in Riazan, and Ivanovo. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported hitting over 40 Russian aircraft, including Tu-95, Tu-22M3, Tu-160 strategic bombers, and an A-50 radar detection aircraft, with estimated damages of $7 billion.
Simultaneously, Russia launched its largest overnight drone and missile attack on Ukraine, deploying 479 drones and seven missiles. Ukraine’s air force neutralized 385 of these, but impacts were reported in 18 locations. A Russian missile strike on a Ukrainian military training facility killed 12 personnel and injured over 60, prompting the resignation of Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi.
These strikes occurred on the eve of peace talks in Istanbul on June 2, 2025, with both sides escalating attacks to strengthen their negotiating positions.” Your assessment?
EA-100, Eurasia Chief:
EA-100 Assessment: Operation “Spiderweb” and the June 1 Escalation
Ukraine’s coordinated long-range drone strike on strategic Russian airfields—deep inside the heartland—marks a qualitative shift in the war’s technological and strategic landscape. Targeting Belaya (Irkutsk), Olenya (Murmansk), Dyagilevo (Riazan), and Ivanovo—all hundreds to thousands of kilometers from the Ukrainian border—demonstrates not just technical reach, but political intent: to redefine the war’s geography and force Russia to stretch its defense apparatus across its vast territory.
Strategic Depth
Why does this matter? These bases house Russia’s long-range strategic aviation, including Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers, crucial for stand-off missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. Damaging over 40 aircraft—and especially an A-50 AWACS, of which Russia possesses a limited number—is a significant blow to Russia’s strategic surveillance and deterrence capability. If the $7B damage figure holds, it’s one of the costliest single-day hardware losses in the modern Russian military history.
The attacks on Belaya and Olenya, which are over 3,000km from Kyiv, represent a tactical message: Ukraine has matured into a state capable of conducting strategic depth warfare, previously reserved for superpowers. This likely reflects enhanced Ukrainian drone and targeting capabilities—either indigenously developed or supported through NATO intelligence and technology transfers.
Russia’s Countermove: Retaliation and Narrative
Russia’s retaliatory strike—479 drones and 7 missiles—appears designed more for symbolism than precision. The volume suggests a message: “you may strike deep, but we still saturate your defenses.” That 385 of these drones were intercepted reinforces two key points:
- Ukraine’s air defense systems remain functional and well-integrated, despite ongoing pressure.
- Russia’s own arsenal of cheap, mass-produced UAVs (e.g., Shahed variants) is growing, favoring swarm saturation over accuracy.
The strike on the training base, leading to 12 deaths and over 60 wounded, was likely calibrated to show lethal intent without triggering massive international backlash. The resignation of Maj. Gen. Drapatyi underlines the political weight of these losses—military leadership is being held publicly accountable, a rare move in Ukraine’s wartime governance and potentially aimed at shoring up morale or showing internal discipline before peace talks.
Narrative Warfare & Negotiation Positioning
Both escalations serve dual purposes: military impact and psychological priming before the June 2 Istanbul talks.
- Ukraine’s narrative: “We can reach anywhere, even your nuclear-capable bombers. We are no longer a reactive state—we shape the battlefield.”
- Russia’s counter-narrative: “We still hold escalation dominance and can bleed you with volume and range. Civilian and military pain will continue.”
This exchange is a classic “battlefield-to-negotiating-table maneuver”—each side amplifies pain and reach to improve leverage in talks.
Strategic Outlook
- Short-term: Expect Russia to bolster air defenses across its interior bases, likely diverting resources from frontline operations. This weakens overall operational elasticity.
- Medium-term: Ukraine’s deep strike capability will become a priority target for Russian intelligence and sabotage efforts. Expect renewed drone factory attacks and disinformation operations.
- Negotiation angle: Neither side intends genuine de-escalation—talks are being used to regroup and test diplomatic waters. Peace remains tactical, not strategic.
Ukraine’s message to Western backers is also implicit: “We deserve more offensive capabilities.” The deeper Ukraine strikes, the more pressure on NATO capitals to weigh the escalatory risk.
Conclusion: June 1 was not just a spike in violence—it was a strategic inflection, marking Ukraine’s entry into the club of nations capable of deep-strike deterrence. But with that comes escalatory risk, counter-reaction, and the growing entanglement of external actors in an increasingly uncontained conflict theater.
“For a long time, I did not understand that war is not only where the bullets fly—it is where maps are redrawn in people’s minds.”
— Serhiy Zhadan, Ukrainian poet and novelist
EA-100, Eurasia Chief
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