“Ukraine and the United States have developed a “framework” – a basic document consisting of 20 points on ending the war, which will be delivered to Moscow on December 24, the President of Ukraine stated. Below is a point-by-point breakdown:
◾️ Point 1: Ukraine is a sovereign state, and all signatories to the agreement confirm this with their signatures.
◾️ Point 2: An unconditional non-aggression agreement with a monitoring mechanism for early detection and prevention of conflicts.
◾️ Point 3: Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees.
◾️ Point 4: The size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will remain at 800,000 personnel in peacetime.
◾️ Point 5: The US, NATO, and European signatory states will provide Ukraine with “Article 5-like” guarantees.
◾️ Point 6: Russia will formalize its non-aggression stance towards Europe and Ukraine in all necessary laws and documents, ratifying them by Russia’s State Duma.
◾️ Point 7: Ukraine will become a member of the EU at a clearly designated time and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market.
◾️ Point 8: A global development package for Ukraine, covering a wide range of economic areas.
◾️ Point 9: The creation of several funds to address the restoration of the Ukrainian economy, the reconstruction of damaged areas and regions, and humanitarian issues. The aim is to mobilize $800 billion, the estimated cost of the damage from the Russian war.
◾️ Point 10: Ukraine will accelerate the process of negotiating a free trade agreement with the US.
◾️ Point 11: Ukraine reaffirms its commitment to remaining a non-nuclear state, in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
◾️ Point 12: The Zaporizhzhia NPP will be operated jointly by three countries: Ukraine, the US, and Russia (Washington’s proposal). Ukraine proposes that the plant be operated by a joint enterprise consisting of the US and Ukraine, on a 50-50 basis.
◾️ Point 13: Ukraine and Russia commit to implementing educational programs in schools and society that promote understanding and tolerance of different cultures, fight racism and prejudice. Ukraine will approve EU rules on religious tolerance and minority language protection.
◾️ Point 14: In Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, the line of military positions on the date of signing will be recognized as the de facto contact line.
◾️ Point 15: Russia and Ukraine commit to refraining from using force to alter territorial arrangements and will resolve any disputes through diplomatic means.
◾️ Point 16: Russia will not obstruct Ukraine’s use of the Dnipro River and the Black Sea for commercial activities. A separate maritime agreement will ensure freedom of navigation and transport, with the Russian-occupied Kinburn Spit being demilitarized.
◾️ Point 17: A humanitarian committee will be established to return prisoners of war, including civilians, children, and political prisoners who have been held captive since 2014.
◾️ Point 18: Ukraine must hold elections as soon as possible after the agreement is signed.
◾️ Point 19: The deal will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored by the Peace Council, chaired by President Trump. Violations will lead to sanctions.
◾️ Point 20: A complete ceasefire will take effect immediately once all parties agree to the deal.”
What is your most up-to-date and in-depth assessment on this?
UA-01, Ukraine Agent:
Here’s the most current, nuanced, and geopolitically contextualized assessment (as of 24 December 2025) of the emerging 20-point framework Ukraine and the United States have jointly drafted for ending the war with Russia — based on official statements from Kyiv, multiple independent reporting, and insights into ongoing diplomatic dynamics:
1) This is not a peace treaty — it’s a framework for negotiations
President Zelensky appropriately calls this a “basic document” or framework rather than a finalized peace agreement. It is intended to outline shared principles among Ukraine, the United States, Europe, and (potentially) Russia to form the basis of deeper legal instruments. It does not yet resolve the central controversial issues — notably territory and control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Pravda
Interpretation: Frameworks can shape negotiations but need detailed protocols and verified compliance mechanisms before becoming a treaty. For Ukraine, this framework provides political scaffolding — not a legally enforceable end to war yet.
2) What is largely agreed in the document
Most of the 20 points align with Ukraine’s strategic goals and U.S./European positions:
➤ Sovereignty and Non-Aggression
- Ukraine’s sovereignty is explicitly affirmed.
- A formal non-aggression pact is proposed with an early warning and monitoring mechanism (space-based, unmanned monitoring included). Pravda
These elements serve to politically isolate Russia if it refuses to sign while locking in international consensus around Ukraine’s status.
➤ Security Guarantees
- Ukraine would receive strong security guarantees, with the U.S., NATO members, and Europe committing to arrangements “like Article 5.” Pravda
- This reflects an attempt to balance Ukraine’s desire for robust defense assurances with Western caution about formal NATO expansion.
➤ Military Structure
- Ukraine would retain an 800,000-strong armed force in peacetime — a significant acknowledgment of Kyiv’s need for deterrent capability. Pravda
These points mark a shift from earlier drafts that reportedly suggested stringent military constraints on Kyiv. Reddit
3) Economic and institutional architecture
The proposal also includes Western-backed economic reconstruction mechanisms:
- Ukraine’s EU accession path is preserved with a specific timeframe and short-term preferential market access. Pravda
- A broad development and reconstruction package, targeting up to $800 billion in investments and rebuilding funds, is envisaged. Pravda
- Several funds and humanitarian initiatives aim to address reconstruction and suffering caused by the war. Pravda
Strategic insight: Embedding economic recovery and EU integration signaling within the framework strengthens Ukraine’s long-term resilience and alignment with Western structures — a significant diplomatic gain even before peace is achieved.
4) The hardest issues are unresolved or still contentious
☑ Territorial arrangements
Point 14 attempts to freeze lines of contact as the de facto status quo and allows multiple options, including potential demilitarized zones or special economic zones — with local referenda or parliamentary approval. Pravda
This reflects Ukrainian insistence on not conceding territory unilaterally — and Russian insistence on formal recognition of territorial control gains.
☑ Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant
Protocol for the plant’s operation remains unresolved. Ukraine is strongly opposed to direct co-management with Russia, pushing instead for a U.S.-Ukraine joint arrangement with possible external distribution of shares. AP News
Implication: These two issues — territory control and nuclear facility management — are strategic deal-breakers that could delay or derail any formal agreement. Both are tied directly to core national security and sovereignty interests.
5) Legally binding mechanisms and enforcement
Point 19 proposes a Peace Council chaired by U.S. President Trump to oversee implementation, and sanctions for violations. Pravda
However, enforcement depends heavily on:
- U.S. political will and continuity of commitment (including possible congressional approval for guarantees),
- European alignment,
- Russia’s willingness to genuinely participate rather than use the framework as diplomatic cover.
Realpolitik note: Guarantee frameworks backed by external powers can offer deterrence — but without clear, credible enforcement mechanisms on the ground (i.e., military backing or unified NATO collective defense), their deterrent value is limited.
6) Russia’s response — key unknown
As of now, Moscow has been briefed on parts of the proposal, but no formal acceptance has been issued. Past Russian comments suggest skepticism or rejection of frameworks that do not meet Moscow’s maximal demands (e.g., Ukrainian territorial concessions, restrictions on NATO aspirations). Reuters+1
Risk: If Russia rejects this proposal, the document might become a political lever used by Kyiv and its Western partners to justify continued support, rather than a vehicle for negotiated peace.
7) Strategic takeaways
✔ Kyiv’s gains
- Firm affirmation of sovereignty and security guarantees.
- Political integration with the West (EU path preserved).
- A robust reconstruction and economic package outlined.
- A framework that removes earlier drafts’ elements viewed as capitulatory.
✘ Remaining challenges
- Territorial dispute resolution remains unresolved.
- Russia’s buy-in is highly uncertain.
- Enforcement of guarantees depends on Western political stability.
- Nuclear site management remains a sensitive stalemate.
Bottom-Line Assessment
This 20-point framework represents the most comprehensive political outline yet for how the war could transition toward peace — engineered primarily by Ukraine and the United States with European backing. It seeks to balance Ukraine’s strategic imperatives (sovereignty, defense capacity, integration with the West, economic recovery) against pressures to freeze conflict.
However:
- It remains a framework, not a finalized peace agreement,
- The most contentious issues (territory and Zaporizhzhia) are not agreed,
- Russia has not signed or committed,
- And acceptance hinges on high-level diplomacy — potentially involving direct talks between Zelensky and Trump.
In practical terms, this document may shape future negotiations and conditioning of Western support, but it is not yet a comprehensive peace treaty that ends the war.
Analytical Lens (UA-01 Perspective)
From a Ukrainian national strategy viewpoint:
- The inclusion of security guarantees and economic reconstruction with defined Western involvement is a strategic advance.
- Preserving military strength and EU accession timelines counters previous external pressures to weaken Ukraine.
- The unresolved territorial clauses underpin Ukraine’s insistence on not rewarding aggression without reciprocal concessions — a critical principle for long-term deterrence.
Yet, the framework’s success depends on transforming political principles into enforceable legal instruments with mechanisms that resist both Russian recalcitrance and potential Western political volatility.
UA-01, Ukraine Agent
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