Where is the Ukraine War Going?
The amount of support determines the duration. Every step that does not lead Ukraine to a complete victory prolongs the war. This could mean that spending relatively little in the short term could end up costing more in the long term, eventually trying to persuade both sides to the table.
Putin’s never-ending nuclear rhetoric made me think of a new basic concept, which I call Risk-taking Capability. This concept requires material efficiency and precise calculations regarding possible scenarios. Russia tests the limits of NATO’s inaction while democracies try to explore the limits of Russian action. Thus, the key to advancing is related to risk-taking capability.
The Biden Administration, which only after two years has been able to show the right approach to Russia’s nuclear threat card, is unsure whether it can manage the process and continues to put political pressure on Europe and China. It is a blatant lack of strategic policymaking to continue to complain about the whole world, including defense spending, after not pushing for a solution with clear and decisive steps from the beginning, thereby prolonging the conflict over time.
Relatively increased support for Ukraine may cause attrition in Russia, but will it lead to a complete withdrawal from the territories it occupies? Being realistic means being aware of historical material realities, not succumbing to Russian propaganda. The fluctuating support graph has placed Ukraine in a position that tends to eventually result in a return to the table and the attrition of Russia beyond its own calculations.
Russia and Ukraine will be called to the table during the Trump Presidency, after increasing support and serious erosion of the Russian sphere of influence in the Biden administration’s last months. Zelensky will have to accept negotiations during the Trump administration because Ukraine cannot continue indefinitely with its economy destroyed and its support diminished.
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı
June 6, 2024, Istanbul