Prescribed Analyses
A potential Taiwan intervention is driven by three main economic goals: downsizing the Chinese economy, reducing production costs by shifting inexpensive production to even lower-cost alternatives, and strategically transferring the cost of trade imbalances to China. The military consequences involve a grand strategy with maritime leverage for long-term gain, psychological superiority across the region, posing a long-term threat to Japan, and testing the military capabilities of both China and the U.S.
Indeed, the economic war persists:
- The U.S. influences global economies, and the EU imposes consequences on those it perceives as harmful.
- Measures include embargoes, arms sales, and compelling regional and middle powers to engage in diplomacy and elections.
- As threat perception rises, defense spending increases in parallel, leading to economic sacrifices and altered trade volumes for the advantaged nations.
- Increasingly pressured economies pose not only economic risks but also global military instability.
MAZ Vision terms this approach the “strategy of loading the cost on the other side.”
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All of our 2021 Ukraine predictions have come true.
Three MAZ foresights hit the mark in August:
- Russian assassinations continue, as predicted in mid-2021, and are likely to persist throughout Eastern Europe and within Russia itself.
- Turkey is slowing and delaying its hard moves, engaging in diplomatic maneuvers in Syria, and facing challenges with Erdogan’s economic approaches, as forecasted in our latest analysis.
- Turkey struggles to balance relations with Russia and its Transatlantic allies, a situation we anticipated months ago.
Indeed, Turkey is neither adopting an anti-imperialist stance nor demonstrating the hard reflexes of a more independent country. It is the Transatlantic decision-making family that is pushing Turkey into Russia’s compulsive arms. NATO allies are forcing Turkey to live under a perforated Russian umbrella.
The global or regional agenda isn’t concerned with exaggerated articles analyzing a relatively small drone company and its purported game-changing role, valued at less than 50 million dollars. Instead, it may be the urgently needed 3 billion euros from the FRID Funds that the Turkish economy requires. Hard and sad, but true.
Muhammet Ali Zurnaci
MAZ Visions
Trial Release
August 26, 2022