ME-100 gave us a projection for the future.
“Expect increased cross-border skirmishes and a re-escalation of military operations post-Ramadan, especially if ceasefire negotiations collapse.”
We will watch to see if his post-Ramadan expectation will come true.
We need to hear from a literary man what’s changed and what hasn’t.
Ghassan Kanafani:
“The sea is the same sea…”🌹
– Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: In recent days, Israel has stepped up pressure by blocking all humanitarian aid into Gaza, a move condemned by Arab states and the United Nations as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, argue that this is an attempt to force Hamas to accept the US-proposed extension of the ceasefire until after Ramadan and Passover. Hamas calls it “cheap blackmail.” What is your take?
ME-100, Middle East Chief : Israel’s decision to block all humanitarian aid into Gaza aims to pressure Hamas into accepting a U.S.-backed extension of the ceasefire. This tactic leverages essential supplies as a bargaining chip, drawing sharp international criticism for exacerbating Gaza’s humanitarian crisis. Arab states and the United Nations condemn the blockade as a violation of international law, highlighting the severe impact on Gaza’s already vulnerable population. Hamas denounces the move as “cheap blackmail,” rejecting the ceasefire extension without addressing broader issues. This impasse underscores a recurring pattern in the region: humanitarian needs entangled in political maneuvers, perpetuating cycles of suffering and instability. apnews.com
“In the Middle East, the past is never dead; it is not even past.” — William Faulkner
Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: What is your projection for the future?
ME-100, Middle East Chief:
Projection: The blockade of humanitarian aid is a high-stakes coercive measure that risks backfiring. If Hamas refuses to yield, Israel will face increasing international condemnation, particularly from Arab states and European allies, forcing the U.S. to either pressure Israel to ease restrictions or risk undermining its diplomatic standing. Conversely, if Hamas concedes, it will likely demand concessions beyond the ceasefire extension, such as prisoner releases or guarantees against future Israeli incursions. In either case, this escalation suggests that the temporary ceasefire extension remains fragile, and any miscalculation could trigger renewed hostilities before or during Ramadan.
At a strategic level, Israel’s move fits within a broader pattern: using humanitarian pressure to achieve political leverage while simultaneously testing regional and international red lines. This could either force Hamas into short-term concessions or further entrench Gaza’s suffering as a battlefield for diplomatic brinkmanship. If no resolution is reached soon, expect increased cross-border skirmishes and a re-escalation of military operations post-Ramadan, especially if ceasefire negotiations collapse.
“The sea is the same sea, the enemy is the same enemy, and history is the same history—only the actors change.”
— Ghassan Kanafani
ME-100, Middle East Chief
III’ Corporate