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The ASEAN region is one of the earliest slow-moving signals of transformation in the global power struggle…
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– Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: Events like the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia at the end of this year are increasingly being analyzed as signals of Asia’s growing geopolitical power. How real is this?
– AS-100, Asia Chief: The upcoming ASEAN Summit in Malaysia underscores Southeast Asia’s escalating geopolitical significance. Malaysia, as the 2025 ASEAN Chair, has adopted the theme “Inclusivity and Sustainability,” reflecting its ambition to enhance regional cohesion and address pressing challenges.
A pivotal agenda item is the planned summit with the United States to discuss proposed U.S. tariffs of approximately 25% on automotive, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports. This move could profoundly impact ASEAN economies, particularly Malaysia, where electrical and electronics products constitute 60% of its trade with the U.S.
Concurrently, ASEAN faces internal challenges, notably the political turmoil in Myanmar and escalating disputes in the South China Sea. The bloc’s ability to navigate these issues will test its unity and diplomatic efficacy.
In this complex landscape, ASEAN’s strategic engagements and internal cohesion are critical. The forthcoming summit serves as a platform for member states to assert their collective influence, address regional disputes, and negotiate economic terms with global powers, thereby solidifying ASEAN’s role as a central player in regional and global geopolitics.
“Asia is not a monolith—neither is the truth.”
– Muhammet Ali Zurnacı: I need a deeper analysis
– AS-100, Asia Chief : ASEAN Summit 2025: A Signal of Growing Geopolitical Power?
ASEAN’s role in global geopolitics is shifting—not merely as a regional bloc but as a central player in an increasingly multipolar world. The upcoming 2025 ASEAN Summit in Malaysia serves as a litmus test for ASEAN’s ability to navigate economic pressures, regional conflicts, and great-power competition.
1. Economic Leverage: A Rising but Fragile Position
ASEAN is now the world’s fifth-largest economy, driven by manufacturing, trade connectivity, and a young workforce. However, its economic leverage is asymmetric: while it seeks autonomy, its key economies (Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam) remain deeply entangled with China and the U.S. The proposed 25% U.S. tariff on ASEAN exports(automotive, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals) is a critical flashpoint. Malaysia and Vietnam, both vital to global supply chains, will push for exemptions or trade realignments. The U.S. response will dictate whether ASEAN nations hedge closer to China or deepen Indo-Pacific alliances.
🔹 Key Signal to Watch: Will ASEAN collectively negotiate trade exemptions, or will individual states break ranks?
2. South China Sea: A Regional Litmus Test
The South China Sea remains ASEAN’s Achilles’ heel. China’s assertiveness—new military outposts, escalatory maritime maneuvers—challenges ASEAN’s unity. While the Philippines has grown more confrontational, states like Cambodia and Laos remain pro-China. The ASEAN Summit’s stance on the South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) will indicate whether the bloc is coalescing into a stronger counterweight or continuing its tradition of strategic ambiguity.
🔹 Key Signal to Watch: Will ASEAN issue a united condemnation, or will China’s economic pull dilute collective action?
3. Myanmar: The Test of ASEAN’s Relevance
Myanmar remains a regional fracture point. ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus (5PC) peace plan has failed, exposing the bloc’s diplomatic limitations. Malaysia, under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, seeks a tougher stance, but divisions persist. If ASEAN softens its approach further, it risks undermining its credibility. Conversely, a firmer ASEAN position could signal a new era of diplomatic boldness.
🔹 Key Signal to Watch: Will ASEAN pivot from passive diplomacy to active mediation or sanctions?
4. ASEAN’s Position in Great-Power Rivalry
ASEAN’s strategic oscillation between the U.S. and China is reaching a breaking point. While it has traditionally championed “strategic neutrality,” U.S. economic policies (tariffs, semiconductor restrictions) and China’s Belt and Road retrenchment are forcing a recalibration. The regionalization of supply chains (China+1 strategy) and Japan’s increasing involvement in ASEAN infrastructure are diversifying dependencies. The Summit’s discussions on digital trade, AI governance, and infrastructure financing will indicate ASEAN’s future alignment.
🔹 Key Signal to Watch: Does ASEAN push for self-reliance (ASEAN+3) or deepen Indo-Pacific alignments?
Conclusion: Real Power or Managed Influence?
The ASEAN Summit is not a declaration of power but a test of strategic coherence. If ASEAN can unify on trade, security, and governance issues, it will solidify its geopolitical weight. However, if divisions persist—whether due to South China Sea disputes or Myanmar—it risks being a regional economic hub with limited political influence. The outcome will shape not only Southeast Asia’s trajectory but the wider Indo-Pacific balance.
Literary Perspective:
“We should not think that the tiger does not leap because it is afraid. It moves with patience, for it knows the right moment to strike.” – Pramoedya Ananta Toer (Indonesia)
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