MAZ Corporate Artificial Scenarios on Turkey’s Election
Thank God, an important part of MAZ’s October 2022 foresight has materialized: cacophony is now alive in Turkish politics. The opposition bloc, Millet Alliance, decided on its joint candidate yesterday: Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who holds the largest vote share within the alliance. However, Meral Akşener, with the second-largest share, appears unhappy with the decision despite her formal support for Kılıçdaroğlu.
Behaviorally in, psycho-visually out of tune.
Why do I call it ‘A Perfect Cacophony’?
Our October 2022 expectations were based on three foundations:
- Cultural Preference for Political Drama
Turkish people anthropologically enjoy consuming fast-paced and intense political agendas. They love politics—though perhaps slightly less than Iranians and far less than Afghans. - Indecision Among the Middle and Upper-Middle Classes
Capital owners within these demographics exhibit indecisive behavior when it comes to supporting opposition parties. - External Constraints Feeding Internal Struggles
Turkey’s shrinking geopolitical maneuvering space has inevitably guaranteed internal political cacophony.
Why Will Turkey’s Internal Politics Remain Cacophonic?
Over-fragmentation in the power game creates a dissonance—a political sound that is out of tune. This ensures that, with near certainty, the cacophony will intensify as election day (May 14, 2023) approaches. We are likely to witness shocking events, dramatic political shows, agitating news, screaming TV channels, sudden counter-alliances, defections, romanticism, tears, poetry, and all the other “sauces” that make Turkish politics so fascinating to its people.
Is a Calm Election Period Possible for Turkey?
Of course, there’s a possibility. Turkey urgently needs significant inflows of hot money. For example, Saudi Arabia recently announced a $5 billion deposit into Turkey’s Central Bank. Financial desperation might calm the political agenda. Furthermore, Turkey’s upper-class capital owners could leverage their influence over political leaders, including Erdoğan.
However, one must not forget Erdoğan’s 20-year playbook during his relative empire:
- Escalate the crisis with provocative narratives.
- Rule by calming the escalation.
- Keep it under control.
- Stay in touch with all sides of Turkey’s power brokers.
If the election campaign between Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu doesn’t remain calm and straightforward, MAZ Corporate has prepared several artificial scenarios for the political games ahead.
MAZ Corporate Artificial Scenarios
- A Stable Millet Alliance Victory
No further alliance or counter-alliance games occur. The Millet Alliance maintains unity, conducts a calm campaign, and Kılıçdaroğlu becomes Türkiye’s next leader. - Millet Alliance Fragmentation
Akşener’s İYİ Party changes its stance, supporting Bahçeli’s MHP and bringing Erdoğan back to power indefinitely. I call this the “Kurt Yuvaya Döndü” (The Wolf Returns to Its Den) scenario, referencing Akşener’s MHP roots. - Cumhur Alliance Fragmentation
Erdoğan’s Cumhur Alliance collapses. Divisions emerge as some factions join Babacan’s DEVA, others align with Karamollaoğlu’s Saadet Party, and Bahçeli’s MHP members defect to Akşener’s İYİ Party. In this case, the balance of power within Millet Alliance shifts dramatically. Kılıçdaroğlu loses his position, and Akşener becomes President, with Babacan possibly as Vice President. - Erdoğan’s Strategic Splintering of AKP
Erdoğan deliberately fractures his own AKP to weaken the Millet Alliance. Key factions align with Saadet, Gelecek, and Demokrat parties under Erdoğan’s new strategy, while HDP also engages with him. Erdoğan wins. - HDP Joins Millet Alliance
HDP officially joins Millet Alliance, strengthening it against Erdoğan. However, İYİ Party, ideologically opposed to HDP, leaves the alliance and joins Cumhur Alliance, securing Erdoğan’s return to power. - Extraordinary Security Threats
External threats from Syria or Greece—or internal security crises such as terrorist attacks, sabotage, or assassinations—create a securitized environment. This consolidates Erdoğan’s position and ensures his victory.
MAZ Corporate’s End-Scenario
This election might not just change Türkiye’s leadership but could also reshape its political systems. Erdoğan has been striving to repair relations with the EU and the USA, but his foreign policy miscalculations regarding Russia have left him weakened and burdened with heavy economic costs.
He is visibly old, tired, and unwell. Regardless of who wins, Türkiye faces enormous challenges in rebuilding its strategic relations with the Western world.
Kılıçdaroğlu’s use of a poem by Turkish mystic Yunus Emre emphasized the importance of unity within the alliance. Following the poem, he sent clear signals to the West about his commitment to parliamentary democracy. A united HDP + Millet Alliance could erase Erdoğan from the political scene.
However, regardless of alliance shifts or leadership changes, Türkiye, as a regional middle power, will likely face setbacks in its political progress.
Final Reflection
Whoever wins, the next leader will have no choice but to continue where Erdoğan left off in repairing ties with the West. No one can maintain relations with the West as tense as Erdoğan did.
So, what is my expectation, for God’s sake?
If not three…
Muhammet Ali Zurnaci
March 7, 2023, Istanbul