Muhammet Ali Zurnaci, Senior Analyst @ III’ Corporate
May 30, 2023
It was very hard to deal with anti-refugee votes, as their voting behavior lacked ideology and was driven by diffused reactivity. Managing this reactionary behavior, split into two blocks (Oğan + Özdağ), was almost impossible.
Dancing with the anti-refugee nationalist Özdağ in the last days caused a significant loss of votes in Southeastern Türkiye. Kılıçdaroğlu’s move toward Özdağ alienated HDP voters, leading to a drop in participation. Consequently, “the loss” outweighed “the gain.”
Kılıçdaroğlu clearly fell short of convincing the rural population, despite being the candidate of a broad coalition rather than a traditional CHP leader.
The campaign team’s choices, the lack of a coherent strategy, and weak tactical moves led to a gradual erosion of the necessary excitement and enthusiasm. Unfortunately, MAZ Corporate’s recommendations from March 15 and May 20 were not followed.
While Türkiye’s people are struggling to survive under the suffocating weight of inflation and the rising cost of living, Kılıçdaroğlu’s choice of “Tranquility and Calmness will win” was an anthropological misstep. People didn’t need calm—they needed resolve and action. That campaign choice proved fatal.
His peaceful and Gandhian style will undoubtedly be fondly remembered by Türkiye’s democrats, bringing millions of smiles in the future. Yet, the pressing question remains: Is it acceptable for 50 percent of the electorate “to lose every election through the ethics of tranquility”? Time will tell.