Nigeria’s president still faces many challenges, but with the opposition in disarray, Tinubu is consolidating support halfway through his term. Your up to date assessment?
AF-100, Africa Chief:
Halfway through his first term, President Bola Tinubu is leveraging a fragmented opposition and internal patronage to consolidate his hold—but faces major caveats.
🔹 Political Power & Opposition Weakness
- Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC) has absorbed dissenting voices across major opposition parties—PDP, Labour, NNPP—through defections, strengthening dominance in both the presidency and legislature.
- While some see this as crony consolidation aided by state resource deployment, Tinubu publicly rebukes any one-party intent—yet critics maintain institutions like the EFCC and security apparatus are being politicized to pressure opponents.
- Civil society warns this trend amounts to democratic backsliding. Nigeria’s media freedom ranking has declined, and civic spaces are contracting through arrests and repression.
🔹 Economic Reboot with Social Costs
- Tinubu’s reform package—fuel subsidy removal, naira float, tighter monetary policy—has earned approval from investors, credit rating upgrades, and macroeconomic stability (fiscal deficit shrinking). Growth is projected near 3.7–4.6 %.
- However inflation remains entrenched above 23 %, especially food prices, triggering cost-of-living unrest (#EndBadGovernance), with at least 1,200 protest-related detentions.
- Infrastructure and energy initiatives are underway (e.g., CNG transit, port and highway upgrades, housing proposals), but implementation remains uneven and public trust fragile.
🔹 Security & Governance
- Worsening insecurity persists: banditry, herder-farmer conflict, Islamist insurgency, and kidnapping continue, with thousands killed. Tinubu’s reactive measures in Benue state are drawing domestic criticism.
- Institutional appointments skew regionally and ethnically, amplifying tensions and undermining national cohesion.
🧭 Strategic Outlook at Mid-Term
- Strengths: Economic stability (despite hardship), solid legislative support, paralysed opposition.
- Risks: Democratic erosion; persistent inflation and insecurity; legitimacy crisis as public discontent deepens.
- As APC eyes 2027 re-election, Tinubu’s strategy hinges on extending reforms to ordinary Nigerians—not just elites—while navigating ethnic divisions and civic pushback.
Final Assessment: Tinubu is entrenching power amid a destabilized opposition, securing macroeconomic gains and investor confidence. But those gains are shadowed by inflation, insecurity, and democratic rollback. If he fails to restore public trust or deliver measurable improvements in safety and living standards, his consolidation may prove brittle.
Literary Reflection
“Each man is caught in webs of his own weaving; power is a silk strand that tightens its hold with every knot.”
— Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o (Kenyan author), Petals of Blood
Let me know if you’d like a deeper dive into any area—security strategy, opposition rebuilding, or reform effectiveness.
AF-100, Africa Chief
Three Corporate