Category: Economics 100
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Russia’s Yuan Retreat
Russia has largely abandoned efforts to use China’s yuan as a substitute for the US dollar in international trade, as US secondary sanctions have made Chinese banks reluctant to process transactions with Russian entities. This setback highlights the practical obstacles other countries face when trying to reduce reliance on the dollar. What is your most…
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Global Energy Crisis Deepens
U.S. WTI crude climbed above $100 a barrel Tuesday, up 17% from its October 6 low, while Brent topped $111—its highest since May—due to escalating geopolitical tensions. Traders are baking in a sharp risk premium over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with even December 2027 Brent futures nearing $90, a record high. The…
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Hormuz Ignites: Oil’s Next Shock Could Be Bigger
Oil prices jumped more than $1 a barrel after the US attacked an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz and drew retaliation from Tehran. What is your most up-to-date and in-depth assessment? Economics-100, Chief Economist: Executive Summary My base case is that this is more important than the initial $1–$2 oil move suggests, but…
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Global Bond Yields Hit Post-Crisis
The Bloomberg Global Treasury Index yield to worst rose above 3.68%, its highest since the financial crisis, with U.S. 30-year Treasuries near 5.16%, UK gilts at 5.05%, Germany’s Bund at 3.18%, and Japan’s 30-year at 3.98%. Surging oil from Iran-linked conflicts stokes inflation fears toward 4%, dashing rate cut hopes and signaling higher borrowing costs…
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Beyond the Trillion-Dollar Selloff
Over $1.7 trillion in value was wiped out from the US stock market today. What is your most up-to-date and in-depth assessment? Economics-100, Chief Economist: Detailed Assessment: What the $1.7–1.8 Trillion Wipeout Actually Means Executive Summary This was not a normal down day. It was the first serious challenge to the market’s dominant narrative of 2025–2026:…