As of October 27, 2025, Cameroon is experiencing intense political turmoil following the presidential election held on October 12. The 92-year-old incumbent President Paul Biya, in power since 1982, has been declared the winner of an eighth term by the Constitutional Council, securing 53.66% of the vote against main challenger Issa Tchiroma’s 35.19%. What is your most up-to-date and in depth assessment?
AF-100, Africa Chief:
Here is my in‑depth assessment of the situation in Cameroon as of 27 October 2025, under the lens of our three‑questions framework.
1️⃣ What is the stated reason?
Officially, the Paul Biya‑led government says that Biya has legitimately won the presidential election of 12 October 2025, having obtained 53.66% of the vote, versus his main challenger Issa Tchiroma Bakary at about 35.19%. The official narrative emphasizes continuity, stability, and Biya’s experience as justification for his further term.
Opposition forces claim that Tchiroma actually won or that the vote has been manipulated, and that the official result is not credible. Tchiroma declared victory early and called on Biya to concede.
2️⃣ What is the real reason?
Behind the official narrative lies deeper structural dynamics:
- Power architecture: Biya has ruled since 1982, chairs the ruling party (Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement, CPDM) and the state apparatus is heavily personalised around his tenure. The presidential term‑limits were abolished in 2008 to enable this continuity. The election is less about genuine competition than about preserving the regime’s longevity.
- Legitimacy crisis: The opposition showing strong support (Tchiroma’s 35% despite being a relatively new challenger) signals an erosion of the once assumed dominance of the regime. Analysts note Biya’s grip appears to have weakened.
- External signalling: By proceeding with the election and declaring a “victory”, the regime signals to domestic and international actors that continuity remains – reassuring some external partners (e.g., resource investors, strategic allies) that the status quo holds. Meanwhile the boycott by many Western embassies of the results announcement suggests scepticism and signals a shift in relationships.
- Crisis‐management logic: The government has pre‑emptively and actively suppressed dissent (arrests, use of force, protest crackdowns) to contain the risk of rebellion or a loss of control.
Thus, the real reason for the outcome is the regime’s determination to maintain its hold on power, asserting institutional legitimacy through the electoral channel while at the same time controlling the playing field and suppressing credible opposition. In short: a managed election, not a free one.
3️⃣ What is the consequence?
Short‑ and medium‑term consequences are multifaceted:
- Legitimacy vacuum: Even with the formal victory, Biya’s mandate is shaky. Opposition and a large share of youth–who form the majority of the population–do not believe the process was fair. This undermines regime legitimacy and raises risk of increased instability.
- Escalation of protest / repression cycle: With opposition contesting the result, the government will likely maintain or increase coercive measures. This could lead to localised violence, especially in regions already troubled (Anglophone Northwest/Southwest, Far North) or where youth unrest is latent.
- Stagnation of reform & generational disconnect: The victory reinforces the status quo. Biya’s age (92) and long tenure raise serious questions about renewal, generational change and responsiveness. Many young Cameroonians will feel excluded, which may lead to further social alienation, brain‐drain or radicalisation.
- Resource & security angle: Cameroon is concurrently dealing with insurgencies (e.g., Anglophone separatists, Boko Haram in the north) and economic pressures. A weakened legitimacy and distracted regime may struggle to respond effectively, giving non‑state actors more space.
- International relations shift: The Western boycott suggests growing international unease with Biya’s democracy credentials. This could reduce Western credibility in Cameroon and push Yaoundé to deepen ties with countries less concerned with democratic norms (e.g., China, Russia). This changes the external power‑map in Central Africa.
- Succession risk & power uncertainty: With Biya firmly in office but at advanced age, the succession question looms. Absence of clear transition planning increases chances of intra‑elite competition, fragmentation, or a coup scenario further down the line.
In sum: The election confirms regime continuation, but does not resolve underlying political and legitimacy crises. The next period is likely to see more repression or sporadic unrest, but not genuine opening. Unless the opposition or civil society find new levers of power (which currently seem weak), this outcome locks in stagnation and raises the chance of eventual destabilisation rather than managed transition.
Final word
While the official story is that “Cameroon has voted and Biya has won”, the deeper truth is that the system remains authoritarian in form, is contested in fact, and is increasingly misaligned with a younger, dissatisfied population and a changing international posture. This election is less a democratic milestone and more a reaffirmation of a regime’s will to persist — but the cracks are visible.
AF-100, Africa Chief
Three Corporate